000 
FXUS65 KCYS 061918
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
118 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE MTNS WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT
BEFORE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR DROPS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE NRN
CWA AS UPPER SHORTWAVE SCOOTS EAST OVER THAT AREA INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN PATTERN THEN SETS UP FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SFC UPSLOPE FLOW UNDERLIES UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. NOT A
LOT OF INSTABILITY SEEN BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS MAINLY CLOSE TO
THE MTNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH MINS MONDAY MORNING RATHER
CHILLY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY... 
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PRIMARILY TO THE POPS FORECAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASE IN POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. EACH
AFTERNOON HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND
FROM MONDAY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. INSTABILITY WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY EVENING. A SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BUT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...I HAVE STILL KEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MORE IMPRESSIVE QPFS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
THERE IS SOMEWHAT A TIMING ISSUE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS STILL.
THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE PRECIPITATION AND QPF AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS
FASTER. DECENT CAPE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY. IN ANY CASE...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS EXPECTED
PRIMARILY OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
MOSIT UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND FRONT. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE
THROUGH SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS FUELS REMAIN GREEN AND RHS EXPECTED REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RE
LONG TERM....MG