000 
FXUS61 KRLX 021754
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE 
STALLING JUST SOUTH OF REGION. A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT 
THURSDAY. SYSTEM EXITS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ALL SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND VERY WEAK 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT HAVE PUT IN LIKELY 
SHOWERS/THUNDER THEN.  AFTER SUN LEAVES THIS EVENING ANY 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE.  PRECIPITATION COMING IN WITH FRONT AGAIN 
WEDNESDAY.  GFS FASTEST WITH FRONT PUSHING SOUTH BUT LIKE A LITTLE 
SLOWER PUSH SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT THEN MAV 
SHOWING.  SLIGHT CHC SVR WEDNESDAY BUT FRONT LOCATION IN AFTERNOON 
WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. 850 MB FRONT LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE 
FRONT...COMPLICATING THE FORECAST CONSIDERABLY. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF 
THE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION...SO INCREASED POPS. TIMING OF THE 
PRECIPITATION IS ANOTHER ISSUE...SO STAYED FAIRLY GENERIC. 

THE FRONT THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A 
WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES OF 
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. 

SYSTEM PULLS OF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...BUT SOME MOISTURE REMAINS IN 
THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD FIRE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE BUILDING 
INTO THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE UNSETTLED 
WEATHER MAKES A RETURN AS WE GET IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES 
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. STAYED CLOSED TO HPC 
GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THERE IS LITTLE 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAUSE LOW CIGS.  SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR RIVER 
VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAWN.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS 
WILL BE IN SE OHIO MID DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.  

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
POSSIBLE IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AAR/TJT
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...MDP/TJT
AVIATION...AAR