000 FXUS62 KILM 020816 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 355 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND SHOULD STALL ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...LOCATIONS THIS MORNING COULD OBSERVE LOW STRATUS AND FOG UP TO A COUPLE HRS AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE WORST OF IT OCCURRING ACROSS LOCATIONS HAVING RECEIVED RAINFALL FROM MONDAYS CONVECTION. THE IMPULSE ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAYS CONVECTION HAS SLID FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE ILM CWA COAST BUT IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE FAST. IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE...THE ILM CWA IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP NEGATE THIS AFTN/EVENG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. WITH VARIOUS MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING WEAK WINDS THRU 7H...AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SHOULD AFFECT THE ILM CWA AND PENETRATE WELL INLAND. THE FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE FRONT COULD FIRE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTRM. HOWEVER WITH VARIOUS 00Z MODEL MOS GUIDANCES INDICATING POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. AS FOR TEMPS...VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CURRENT MAXES OF LOWER 90S INLAND...TO ROUGHLY 80-85 ALONG THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3AM TUE... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR ON WED (PWATS AROUND 1.0 INCH) THAT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. THERE COULD BE ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO LIFT A PARCEL TO LFC. COLUMN MOISTENS INTO THURS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AS SFC BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH ENCROACH UPON THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. WRF GUIDANCE SHOWING SURPRISING RESTRAINT WITH CONVECTIVE SIGNALS LOCALLY...KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTION TO THE NW. GFS HAS TOO MUCH GRID SCALE FEEDBACK TO BE VERY USEFUL IN THE 00Z RUN. WRF MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING THOUGH AS THE AREA MAY VERY WELL LIE IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTION. ONE AREA OF STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH SRN UPPER WAVE AND SFC LOW ON THE FRONT. THE OTHER WILL MOVE OUT OF THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH NORTHERN BRANCH. CURRENT FCST HAS A NW TO SE GRADATION OF POPS FROM 25-40...HIGHEST NW THRU PM AND ABOUT A 10-15 PERCENT INCREASE ACRS THE BOARD THURS NIGHT AS FRONT NEARS...BRINGING LIKELY POPS INTO NWRN ZONES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3AM TUE... COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AND PARALLELS THE COAST SAT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY UNSETTLED WX THRU THE PD ESP IF SOME OF THE TRAILING SFC WAVES SHOWING UP IN GUIDANCE COME TO PASS. THIS FRONT SHOULD PROBABLY WASH OUT FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH DRYING OF THE COLUMN BEHIND IT SO THE SEABREEZE AND ANY LINGERING OR REDEVELOPING INLAND TROUGHINESS SHOULD BE ABLE TO YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION WITHOUT MUCH DIFFICULTY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ATTM...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. THE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AT CRE. SCATTERED LOW STRATUS ATTM DEVELOPING VIA LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SAT IMAGERY AND OBSERVED ACROSS A FEW SITES IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA TERMINALS. BASED ON THESE TRENDS WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE LOW STRATUS AND ADDITIONAL BR IN THE TAFS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS ON THE RECEIVING END OF PCPN THE PAST 12 HRS. MUCH OF THE DEBRIS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS STRATUS...CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING THE CONTINUED FORMATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. BETWEEN 12-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME THE MAINSTAY AT ALL TERMINALS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY NOON AND PUSH TO THE INLAND TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO INDUCE CU/TCU ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY A CB AND AN ISOLATED TSTRM. NOT ENUF COVERAGE TO PLACE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...POSSIBLE MORNING IFR WEDNESDAY DUE TO FOG/LOW STRATUS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...IN A NUTSHELL...EXPECT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON THRU MIDNIGHT...WHEN AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE WILL INFLUENCE NEARSHORE CONDITIONS. IE. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT. AN UNDERLYING 1 TO OCCASIONALLY 2 FOOT SE SWELL RUNNING AT 9+ SECOND PERIODS WILL AFFECT THE ILM WATERS THRUOUT THE NEAR TERM. IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH LOCALLY PRODUCED SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES TO COMBINE WITH THE SE SWELL AND PRODUCE 3 FOOT SIG SEAS. IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. SHORT TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3AM TUE... PRETTY TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH-INDUCED SWRLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF WED. A WARM FRONT MAY BACK THE FLOW BRIEFLY TO SE WED NIGHT ESP OVER NRN WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NOT TO FAR TO THE NORTH THURSDAY WHILE SRN ZONES ARE SITUATED IN A SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ZONE OF SRLY WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN THIS AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3 TO 5 FT. LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3AM TUE... FRIDAY WIND FCST STILL HINGING UPON THE POSITION OF COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD ENTER THE WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS INITIALLY SW POSSIBLY VEERING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY ESP OVER NRN ZONES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STILL STALLS CLOSE TO THE COAST SAT. THE FEEDBACK-INDUCED SFC WAVE ON THE GFS HAS RENDERED WNA GUIDANCE FAIRLY UNUSABLE. CURRENT SEAS FCST A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WIND TO WAVE NOMOGRAM AND SHOWS MORE OR LESS A CONTINUATION OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BACON NEAR TERM...HOEHLER SHORT TERM...BACON LONG TERM...BACON AVIATION...HOEHLER