000 FXUS61 KBGM 012147 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 547 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT DAY ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS DRY AIR WORKING EAST ACROSS WRN NY THIS EVENING BEHIND WEAK UPR LVL WAVE MOVING THRU OUR REGION WITH SOME SPRINKLES. RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE GTLKS AND UPR MIDWEST SHOWS LITTLE TO NO PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT... EXCEPT FOR CLUSTER OF RAIN/TSTMS ACROSS NRN INDIANA/ILLNOIS. THE UPR LVL WAVE DRIVING THESE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE IN THE TWIN TIERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE OF RAIN. WILL MONITOR TRENDS LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE BUMPED UP...BUT FOR NOW WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE HERE WE WILL EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND WILL GO WITH JUST HIGH CHC POPS AND SCATTERED MODIFIER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING TUES. IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE TWEEKED FCST TO MENTION CHC OF A SPRINKLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF LOW POP/DRY WX FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENING TIL A FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINING CLEARING SKIES TO ALL LATE MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVER SLOWED ARRIVAL OF NEXT SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BACKED POPS OFF TO JUST CHC FOR WESTERN/NRN CWA AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF FA. CONTINUED WITH CAT/LIKELY POPS AND CHC OF TRW OVER NE PA AND PARTS OF THE CATSKILLS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE UPR GREAT LAKES. NAM FASTER THAN SREF/GFS IN PULLING SYSTEM OUT. USED A COMPROMISE TO TIME THE PRECIP THROUGH AREA OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY...STILL A CHC OF MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY/POCONOS THEN SFC HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO ALL AREAS. WITH T925/T85 SHOWING SOME COOLING MAXES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... REMAINING COOL WITH FIRST HIGH PRESSURE THU NGT TO EARLY SAT THEN MULTIPLE SLOW MOVING FRONTS WITH THE ZONAL UL FLOW FOR SAT PM TO MON. SAT NGT FRONT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE. BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE MONDAY. MODELS SIMILAR BUT AS USUAL DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVNG. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE CWA. LOWER BUT STILL VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THIS EVE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. ALSO AFTER 02Z A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER MIDNIGHT MVFR CIGS COME INTO NY WITH THE FRONT. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED YET. AROUND 14Z CIGS LIFT BACK TO VFR FOR THE DAY TUESDAY. LGT SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN. WINDS DROPPING TO 5 KTS THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT ARND TO THE W-NW AFT 06Z AT ALL BUT AVP CLOSER TO 15Z WHERE FNT TAKES LONGER TO MV THRU. OUTLOOK... TUE NGT TO THU...MVFR IN RAIN. THUR NT TO FRI NGT...VFR WITH HI PRES IN. SAT...VFR DROPPING TO MVFR WITH FRONT AND SHOWERS. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 5 AM...RECORDS HAVE BEEN SET AT AVOCA AND TIED AT BINGHAMTON FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. OFFICIAL CLIMATE NUMBERS WILL BE OUT LATER THIS MORNING BUT BELOW IS A QUICK SUMMARY THROUGH 5 AM. THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR AT KAVP (AVOCA, PA) IS 36 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES SET IN 2003. THIS LOW TEMPERATURE IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE 3RD COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN JUNE. THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR AT KBGM (BINGHAMTON, NY) IS 37. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 37 SET IN 2001. THIS LOW TEMPERATURE IS GOOD ENOUGH TO TIE FOR THE 9TH COLDEST JUNE TEMPERATURE EVER. THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR AT KSYR (SYRACUSE, NY) IS 38. ALTHOUGH NO RECORDS WERE SET...THIS TEMPERATURE TIES FOR THE 9TH COLDEST JUNE TEMPERATURE EVER. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...JAB SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...TAC