000 
FXUS64 KMEG 270744
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
244 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DECREASING IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER. COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO BUT
DO NOT FEEL THE THREAT IS GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING TO THE
FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT BRINGING MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BY THURSDAY
THE FRONT WILL BE ALMOST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THE REGION SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOK TO BE QUITE NICE WITH DRY WEATHER AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90
DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

ARS 

&&

AVIATION...

06Z TAF DISCUSSION

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE MEM TAF THROUGH
07Z THEN TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH MORNING. VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST WITH SOME VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR OR
EVEN IFR IN PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT. VFR WITH TEMPORARY
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A WIND
SHIFT TO JBR AND MEM PRIOR TO 06Z THURSDAY.

JLH

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  87  66  79  64 /  40  30  30  20 
MKL  86  66  79  59 /  40  30  30  20 
JBR  86  62  75  60 /  40  30  30  20 
TUP  85  67  82  62 /  40  30  30  20 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$