000 FXUS61 KRLX 111744 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 144 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2009 .SYNOPSIS... ALL RIVERS ARE NOW BACK IN THEIR BANKS. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL FLAT WAVE / NEAR CHANNELED VORTICITY / WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF AREA THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND FAR SOUTHERN WV AND SW WV THIS MORNING. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TAKES A TRACK FARTHER N AS IT GENERATES A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. LOW TRACKS N OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS. INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT UPRIGHT CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED. SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL ARE POSSIBLE ON ACCOUNT OF LOW WET BULBS HEIGHTS / 4-5 KFT / ACROSS NORTHERN WV. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE SMALL FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. EVENING EXODUS OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING. GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW CLOUD / FOG BRIEFLY IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN TUE. HIGHS TODAY LOOKED TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. EDGED LOWS TONIGHT TOWARD GFS40. THE GFS WAS WARMER W THAN THE NAM12. BASICALLY ENDED UP WITH A BLEND THERE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE. ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...CREATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HPC PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL USED FOR DETAILS THIS PERIOD...BEING SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA. FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WHILE THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FOR INCREASED CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...PREFER TO HOLD OFF MOST OF THE SHOWERS TIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BETTER DYNAMICS OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACH. THIS WILL BRING THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET MOST OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...SO ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FRIDAY INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...GOING WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH BRINGS IN THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY. THUS...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A BASIC WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPS MOST OF THE COLD AIR MASSES TO THE NORTH. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CUMULUS BUILDING IN THE CLEARING IN THE STRATUS DECK...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE IN THIS AREA...WITH THE HELP OF A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. SOME THUNDER IS EXPECTED...AND COVERED THIS WITH CB...AS INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. FOLLOWED LAMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT...AND BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN ACCORDINGLY. EKN HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO GO IFR...BUT THE CLEARING NECESSARY TO DO SO WILL OCCUR LATE...SO IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE CLEARING AND DAWN. PUT THE VIS TO IFR. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...AND WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY. AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z TUESDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THURSDAY MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... WITH THE TUG FORK BACK WITHIN ITS BANKS...MOST RESIDUAL BACK WATER PROBLEMS SHOULD FADE AWAY TODAY. MENTION OF HAZARDS IN THE HWO AND IMPACTS IN THE RWS RELATED TO THE TUG FORK HAVE BEEN NIXED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26 HYDROLOGY...