000 
FXUS63 KMPX 071009 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 315 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM IS POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION ALONG SFC
CDFNT WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON.
WAVE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA APPEARS TO MOVING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE 00Z NAM WAS INDICATING. 00Z GFS DOES HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIP
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE MORNING. THIS TREND APPEARS
TO BE PANNING OUT. AFTERNOON...THINGS GET A LITTLE DICIER. FRONT
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE CWA...WITH RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AVBL. 850 MB LIS ARE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AS WELL. SOME SFC CAPE
AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...AS SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
PROBABLY RUNNING SOME 10 DEGREES HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z NMM WRF
SHOWING SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG FNTL BNDRY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.  WILL TREND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND DROP INTO SC MN INTO THE EVENING. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...IT
WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE. SFC TEMPS SHOULD MIX OUT WELL...SO THE
LOWER AND MID 70S LOOK GOOD MOST AREAS.

BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TONIGHT AND NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS IS A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE...WITH
BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL GO HIGH CHANCE
POPS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD IT EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND AS 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST. SHOULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. 00Z ECMWF COMING MORE
IN LINE TO THE 00Z GFS...WITH A RATHER COOL FISHING OPENER AND
MOTHERS DAY EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
PTCHY FOG PSBL ARND 12Z AT EAU WHERE WNDS FLAT AND T/TD SPREADS ONLY 
ARND 1C.  OTHW SM HIGH LVL CLDS PUSHING ACRS S MN DRNG MRNG...BUT 
BASES AOA 9K. SFC CDFNT ACRS S PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL DROP INTO CNTL 
MN LT THIS AFTN AS LOW PRES NR CYWG MVS TO NR CYQT ARND 00Z.  MAY BE 
NARROW TONGUE OF INSTAB VCNTY FNT WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOL 
-SHWRS/-TSRA. INTRO VCSH AT KSTC AND WI TAF SITES LATE AFTN. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/BAP