000 FXUS62 KMHX 060754 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 354 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ALTHO A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NC TODAY...EXPECTING OVERALL LESS PCPN/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. FRONTAL BNDRY HAS STALLED JUST TO NW OF FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY RETREATING BACK NORTH AS A WEAK UPR IMPULSE LIFTS NE ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PCPN THIS MORN WITH LTL TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BUT SHUD PICK UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND PASSING OF SHORT WAVE TO NW. BEST PCPN CHCS WILL RESIDE ACRS FAR NW COUNTIES IN VCNTY OF RETREATING FRONT WITH REDUCED CHCS TO SE WHERE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER. THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...AGAIN WITH BEST CHCS OVR NW AREAS WHERE STABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HEAVY PCPN ALSO LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS WITH PRECIP WATERS ARND 1.5 INCHES WHICH CUD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A STRONGER MID LVL TROF CURRENTLY OVR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE APPROACHING THE FCST AREA LATE TNGT. SHUD SEE WANING CONVECTION WITH DIURNAL HEAT LOSS DURING THE EVENING THEN RENEWED CONVECTION LATE TNGT INTO EARLY THU ASSOCD WITH THE MID LVL FORCING. THIS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL IN NAM/ECMWF MODELS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH INITIALIZE POORLY TO BEGIN WITH...AN UNRELIABLE OUTLIER. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE COMING THRU DURING THE DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY BUT CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SVR WEATHER THREAT LATER TNGT INTO EARLY THU GIVEN THE STRONG MID/UPPER LVL SUPPORT. MAY SEE BULK OF PCPN MOVING OFF THE COAST BY ARND MIDDAY THURS WITH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LVL TROF LEADING TO LOWER PCPN CHCS DURING THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A PERIOD OF LESSER PCPN CHCS/COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS FCST PERIOD AS THE LINGERING FRONT TO NW MOVES FARTHER NORTH AND MID LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT POPS GIVEN THE CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY WEAK MID LVL DISTURBANCE TO SET OFF CONVECTION ALONG RESIDUAL MESOSCALE BNDYS. SHUD SEE MORE SUN ON FRI WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO 80S AND POSSBLY NEAR 90 INLAND. MID LVL ENERGY DROPPING SE THRU THE MIDWEST WILL PROPEL THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH RENEWED INCREASED CHCS FOR PCPN ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AND STALL NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND SO WILL CONTINUE LOW PCPN CHCS INTO SUNDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOADS THE MID LVL TROF OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH MAY FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE RECENT WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 10 PM...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING WHILE WESTERN TERMINALS REMAIN VFR. SOME SHRA POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION DIMINISHES JUST WEST OF THE AREA OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AND LOWER TO IFR ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE SO VSBYS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW MVFR. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WED WITH VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN AIRMASS UNTIL LATE WEEKEND WHEN A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. && .MARINE... AS OF 10 PM...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS THIS UPDATE OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. SEAS NOW 6 FT AT DIAMOND BUOY AND WW3 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE 6 FT SEAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT SW WINDS CONTINUE. SCA NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS THESE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THU THE UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE SE...AND THE SFC FRONT SAGS S AS WELL. UNFORTUNATELY IT WASHES OUT AND WE CONTINUE IN A SW FLOW INTO SAT. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROF IS REINFORCED...A SFC HIGH SLIDES OUT OF CANADA...AND A COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. OVERALL NO NOTABLE SWELLS OUTSIDE OF THE BUILDING SW...SO SEAS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE QUICKLY WITH A WIND SHIFT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154- 156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...BTC SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...BTC AVIATION...SJ/JW MARINE...SJ/JW