000 FXUS62 KMHX 060228 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1028 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2009 .SYNOPSIS... FRONT NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...AND WILL REMAIN THERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND PASS EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA SUNDAY && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 715 PM TUE...QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS SIGNIF THIS EVENING ESPCLY CST AS ALL ACTIVITY IS WELL TO THE NW NEAR BNDRY. DECENT INSTAB PERSISTS OVER THE INLAND AREAS AND AS WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVES NE ALONG BNDRY COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER ESPCLY INLAND CLOSER TO THE BNDRY. DECENT SHEAR COMBINED WITH INSTAB COULD LEAD TO SOME SEVERE THIS EVENING HOWEVER WITH SUN GOING DOWN SEVERE THREAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. NO CHANGE TO LOW TEMPS WITH MID TO UPR 60S MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BRIEF LULL WED AM IN PCPN WI LWR POPS AS FRNT CONTS TO LIFT N AND AHD OF NXT APPCHG SYS. A WRM FRNT AHD OF NXT SYS WL SLIDE INTO CWA WED AM AS ASSCTFD SFC LO STAY TO THE W. 5H TROF BOTTOMS OUT WED OVR THE MID W. LOT OF UPR LVL ENERGY OVR AREA SO WL RMN UNSETTLED THRU THE RMNDR OF THE WORK WK. HI TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S WED...RISING TO THE MID 80S BY FRI WI SW LO LVL FLO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MSTLY ZNL FLO OVR AREA DURING THE XTNDD PD AS MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYS TO THE N OF NC. WK PIECES OF ENERGY WL MV THRU THE FLO FROM TM TO TM. A FRNT WL DROP THRU AREA SAT NGT. THEN A SYS WL MV UP FRM THE SRN STRM ON TUE. UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND STRNGTH SO WL KP CHC POPS IN THRU THE PD. TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S THRU THE WKEND...WL COOL TO UPR 70S OR LWR 80S AS FRNT GOES THRU SUN. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 10 PM...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING WHILE WESTERN TERMINALS REMAIN VFR. SOME SHRA POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION DIMINISHES JUST WEST OF THE AREA OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AND LOWER TO IFR ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE SO VSBYS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW MVFR. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WED WITH VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN AIRMASS UNTIL LATE WEEKEND WHEN A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. && .MARINE... AS OF 10 PM...MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS THIS UPDATE OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. SEAS NOW 6 FT AT DIAMOND BUOY AND WW3 GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE 6 FT SEAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT AS PERSISTENT SW WINDS CONTINUE. SCA NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS THESE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THU THE UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE SE...AND THE SFC FRONT SAGS S AS WELL. UNFORTUNATELY IT WASHES OUT AND WE CONTINUE IN A SW FLOW INTO SAT. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROF IS REINFORCED...A SFC HIGH SLIDES OUT OF CANADA...AND A COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. OVERALL NO NOTABLE SWELLS OUTSIDE OF THE BUILDING SW...SO SEAS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE QUICKLY WITH A WIND SHIFT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CGG NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...CGG LONG TERM...CGG AVIATION...SJ/JW MARINE...SJ/JW