000 
FXUS65 KLKN 040845
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
145 AM PDT MON MAY 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRUSH NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE BEING TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THE STORM TRACK WILL
THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTH FOR DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FAST ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE
ALOFT ATTM. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WITHIN THIS FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL
PUSH ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN NV LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
EXTEND ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES. WITH
THE MILD AIR MASS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ON TUESDAY...FAST ZONAL FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER
NORTHERN NV...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL PUSH THE STORM
TRACK TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WILL PROBABLY STILL SEE
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NV. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE
WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RISING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BETWEEN TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LONG RANGE 
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING 
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. WITH WESTERLY FLOW 
AT LOW TO MIDLEVELS...EXPECT WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S 
TO MID 70S NORTH...AND MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS CNTRL NV. LOW TEMPS 
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO 
UPPER 30S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A 
RATHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGGING SE ALONG THE PAC NW COASTLINE 
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING 
INTO NRN NV BY MONDAY BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AND MUCH COLDER 
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES 
THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUNDAY. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS AND UKMET 
KEEP THE MAIN STORM OFF THE WRN CANADIAN COASTLINE WITH THE MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NV...WITH TEMPS 
REMAINING IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH GFS 
ENSEMBLE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND STORMS 
SYSTEMS THIS COLD ARE RARE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ACROSS NV...DID NOT 
MAKE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. INCREASED POP 
TOWARDS CLIMO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND KEPT TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGS 
ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID NOT INCREASE TEMPS AS HIGH AS THE GFS 
SUGGESTS JUST YET. 
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT 
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL 
PUSH INTO NRN NV LATE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS 
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RAIN SHOWERS BY THIS EVENING. MVFR 
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN NV...INCLUDING KWMC AND 
KEKO...STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR 
LOW CIGS.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

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