000 
FXUS64 KHGX 291526
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LAYER OVER
REGION. MOISTURE RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF OUR RECION. WE MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE ZFPHGX
ON TRACK. 37

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
MESOSCALE PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY TAME IN RELATION TO RECENT DAYS
WITH LAST NIGHTS NORTHERN TEXAS WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY COMPLETELY
WASHING OUT. STRAIGHT-LINE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUMPING IN LOW 70
DEW POINT AIR AS FAR INLAND AS THE CENTRAL FA...UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. OBVIOUSLY...WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES (PWATS
AROUND 1.50) AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THERMO PROFILES...ALL THE
REGION NEEDS IS A TRIGGER TO RE-GENERATE RAIN AND THUNDER. THE
LATEST IMPULSE COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE PANHANDLE MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE NORTHERN MID-DAY CONVECTION...OR WHEN
UPPER 70 F CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MET. FEEL THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT STREAMER-LIKE SHOWERS ONCE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S UNDER HINTS OF EARLY DAY SUNSHINE. WEAKER 20-30
KT LOW LEVEL JET UNDER BETTER STREAMLINE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH...ALONG
WITH THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY OF ENERGY WITH THIS LATEST
S/W...HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN NORTH OF THE CWA.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SAME SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...HIGH HUMIDITIES UNDER PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WITH NEAR VICINITY NORTHERN TEXAS VORTS KEEPING AT LEAST
20-30 POPS IN PLAY. AS WE SIT IN THIS MOISTURE-RICH AND FAIRLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...NOTHING REALLY STANDS OUT ON WHAT WOULD KICK
OFF ANOTHER RAIN EVENT OTHER THAN THAT UNFORESEEABLE UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW OR A ROGUE VORT.

GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FROPA MONDAY THAT WOULD
TURN OUR WINDS OFFSHORE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY GOING INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A LIKELY
PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTRODUCES AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE MAIN
BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH SOMETIME MID-DAY MONDAY. 31

MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FCST. WELL ADVERTISED E/SE LONG FETCH  
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. 
SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL DOWNGRADE FLAGS TO CAUTION IN 
THE 20-60 NM GROUP.  47 

AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY GO 
INTO THE HIGHER END IFR RANGE AT A FEW TERMINALS TOWARD MORNING. 
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE TYPICAL TRANSITION INTO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID 
TO LATE MORNING. MODELS DEPICTING UPPER IMPULSES MOSTLY TRAVELING N 
OF SE TX TODAY...WITH UTS & CLL SEEING THE BETTER CHANCES OF 
SHRA/TSTMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR ANY OUTFLOWS THAT MAY PUSH FURTHER 
INTO SE TX TO POSSIBLY SERVE AS A FOCUS. CONVECTIVE TEMP SHOULD BE 
IN THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN SO WILL PROBABLY ADD SOME CBS IN THE 
LATE AFTN FOR TERMINALS S OF UTS. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS 
DEVELOPING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.  47

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE 
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH 
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$