000 FXUS61 KRLX 260604 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 204 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2009 .SYNOPSIS... CONTINUED DRY AND WARM THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTM WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN SUTTON...BECKLEY...AND ELKINS TIL SUNSET...THEN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND CREATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NEAR TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 15C OVER OHIO AND WV LOWLANDS...WITH 16-17C TEMPERATURES OVER MOUNTAINS. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS MAX T FORECAST TREND...BUT HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY AT OR NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING GENERALLY RANGED IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BASED ON THIS...BELIEVE THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING TOO LOW...AND HAVE THEREFORE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER SE OHIO WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SUN NT AND MON...SO ONCE ANY CU SUN DISAPPEARS THE WAY OF THE SUN SUN EVE...EXPECT NARY AM CLOUD IN THE SKY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN BECOMES DEVOID OF MOISTURE. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND LOWER AND THICKEN FROM THE W TUE AFTN AND EVNG...AS FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO PUSH E TOWARD THE AREA. SPED TIMING ON THIS A LITTLE BIT AS ISC AND HPC FAVORED THE FASTER GFS GIVEN THE MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS. MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TUE INTO TUE NT...WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT MITIGATING THE THREAT OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE. WITH SEVERAL DRY DAYS IN PROGRESS...USED RTMA DATABASE TO SERVE AS TEMPLATE FOR SOME OF THE MAXT AND MINT GRIDS BEFORE SERPING GUIDANCE...THE MAV IN MOST CASES. DID ROLL WITH THE LOWER MET FOR LOWS MON NT GIVEN DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THAT TIME. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS STILL TRYING TO BRING IN A RATHER POORLY DEFINED RIPPLE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AFTER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA. OPERATIONAL MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE LEAVING A LOT TO BE DESIRED...AND RAN GENERALLY WITH HPC REASONING OF MODEL BLENDING AND SELECTION. IN THE END...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PEPPERED WITH SHOWERS AND A SKY ON THE CLOUDY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE NUMBERS STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER SIDE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MAY SEE THESE SLOWLY DIP IN COMING MODEL RUNS...COMMENSURATE WITH BETTER RESOLVED AREAS OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LITTLE SCATTERED MID DECK REMAINS FROM CONVECTION LATE ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MID DAY SUNDAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS DAY WITH WINDS ONLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW THAT THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED IN THE MOUNTAINS SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND SINCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DID FORM SATURDAY...HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED CONVECTION TO AROUND 30 PERCENT...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF IT HITTING AN AIRPORT SITE IS LOW. BY SUNSET...THE ANY CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AND THE LINGER CLOUD SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 6Z...LEAVING A CLEAR SKY. SO OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z MONDAY/... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .FIRE WEATHER... SPS ISSUED CONCERNING ENHANCED FIRE DANGER FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY MAY NEED REISSUED SUN...AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE THE PROGRESSIVE DRYING OUT OF 10 HOUR FUELS. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FORECAST CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...JKF SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...ESS FIRE WEATHER...