000 FXUS61 KRLX 251050 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 650 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2009 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN OF RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. INITIALLY...STILL HAVE SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH...BUT MOST OF THAT SKY COVER SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z TO 14Z. AFTER THAT...THE SUN SHOULD RETURN WITH SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT FEEL THAT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND WHEN ADJUSTING THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE CAPE DROPS OFF TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG. SO WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE KEPT THE MOUNTAINS DRY FOR TODAY. THE BEST INFLOW AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO BE OVER ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA AND NC...WHICH IS WHERE IT DID DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD ADVECT NWD AND REACH THE GREENBRIER VALLEY BY 00Z SUN...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THAT ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING HAS ENDED THAT IT WILL SURVIVE INTO THE CWA...SO LEFT THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS WELL. FOR TEMPERATURES...BASED UPON THE 850 MB FCST WHICH SHOWS THE CORE OF THE WARM AIR AT 850 MB SHIFTING EAST...WITH 16C AIR OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND 14C ACROSS SERN OHIO...DID NOT SEE HOW THE MAV NUMBERS IN THE LOW 90S IN THE LOWLANDS CAN BE REALIZED. BASED UPON FRIDAYS HIGHS AND THE 850 TEMPS...HAVE HELD THE LOWLANDS IN THE UPPER 80S AND THE ALLOWED THE MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BLENDING BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. FOR TONIGHT...RADIATIVE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE WEST AS THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER NORTH. BUT WILL STILL SEE A LIGHT BUFF AND KEPT THE LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE WEST...WHILE ALLOWING THE RADIATIVE CONDITIONS IN THE EAST SO WENT A TOUCH BELOW GUIDANCE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THINGS STAND THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL BE HOVERING AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK. 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 14C-16C. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S IN THE COOLER EASTERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN. ON 12Z TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST AND WILL MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY INTO THE CWA...AS NOT MUCH PUSH BEHIND IT...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY START TO MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS OVER SE OH DURING THE DAY AND BY 00Z WED HAVE CHC POPS ACROSS OH AND KY ZONES. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP A TAD COOLER ON TUESDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT GRIDS AND GUID TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST BREAKS DOWN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST TO GET ENOUGH FORWARD MOMENTUM AND CARRY THROUGH THE CWA. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE BOUNDARY AFTER IT PASSES THROUGH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TRACKING EASTWARD INSTEAD OF SOUTHWARD...BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP AT SOME POINT...POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE...AND THE SKY COVER ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH NO REAL CLEARING EXPECTED. STARTED WITH HPC VALUES FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES...AND TWEAKED THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWNWARDS IN A FEW CASES WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...LOOKS LIKE MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US CONTINUES TO KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MAINLY CLOUD FREE. AN AREA OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND IT SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 14Z. FROM THAT POINT FORWARD THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR...WITH ONLY SOME DAY TIME HEATING CU EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO GENERATE ANY CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO THE SE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN ON SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE MIXING OF THE DAY. GUST OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...AFFECTING PKB/HTS...AND AREAS WEST. THE CU WILL GO AWAY BY AROUND 23Z AND THE WINDS WILL RELAX. THE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MAINTAINS IT POSITION AND THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS LIMITED. AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY/... NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .FIRE WEATHER... ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE A PROGRESSIVE DRYING OUT OF 10 HOUR DEAD FUELS. ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ESS/JS NEAR TERM...ESS SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...ESS FIRE WEATHER...