000 
FXUS63 KPAH 081723 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1223 PM CDT WED APR 8 2009

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MILD DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. GFS 
CU RULE DID MUCH BETTER THAN THE NAM YESTERDAY...SO BASED ON THE GFS 
TODAY...DO EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING AND THIS 
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH 
CLOUDS ONLY MAKING THEIR WAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI 
TOWARD 12Z. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IS AGAIN EXPECTED 
TONIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM...WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS 
NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES 
SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS...AND DEW POINTS 
SPREADS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL HAVE DAY 
SHIFT MONITOR THIS JUST IN CASE.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
FA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN LAST NIGHTS RUNS...AND
GOING POPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED SLIGHTLY. THURSDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE WHEN WE WILL RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...SO
CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS NORTHWEST TO HIGH LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF PAINT PRETTY SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS
AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. QPF AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND ONE AND HALF INCHES LOOK
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SHOWERS/STORMS END LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW LIS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CAPE VALUES OF
100 TO 200 J/KG.  SPC HAS ALL BUT OUR NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHICH WOULD BE MAINLY
FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAY 3 HAS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK AS THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...AND WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE
LOW/COLD FRONT.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE EASTER SUNDAY SYSTEM...GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND RIGHT
NOW WE ONLY HAVE POPS IN FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BOTH PLACING THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
BY 12Z MONDAY...AND SPREADING SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH CHANCE
POPS GOING BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL STICK WITH THESE FOR NOW AND
SEE IF THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND.

FOR NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES...MAV/MET ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO THESE VALUES. IN THE EXTENDED...GOING TEMPS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MEX...AND MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. 

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS 
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PREVAIL...WITH GUSTS 
OF 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE 
KEVV AND KOWB TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT UNDER 
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$