000 FXUS62 KMHX 071727 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 127 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... MID LVL TROF SLIDES THRU THE REGION TODAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS IN THE LOWERED THICKNESS PATN WITH HIGHS MAINLY CPL DGRS EITHER SIDE OF 55. LOW/MID MOISTURE AND DECENT LAP RATES WILL GENERATE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTN. PCPN WILL BE LIMITED BY VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER BUT A FEW SPRINKLES PSBL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDS WILL CONT IN A TIGHT PRES GRAD. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE INLAND FROM THE COAST. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING THRU THE AREA OVRNGT BUT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THE SHORT WAVE MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND DECENT MIXING UNTIL VERY LATE TNGT. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD SO LITTLE IF ANY FROST IS EXPECTED BUT LIKELY TO SEE SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS REACH FREEZING OR BELOW LATE. FOR NOW WILL CONT WITH FREEZE WATCH UNTIL FULL SUITE OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CAN BE ANALYZED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 445 PM TUE...WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. HOWEVER...WITH PREVAILING S/SSW WIND DEVELOPING AND RISING HEIGHT/THICKNESSES...EXPECT A RAPID MODERATION OF TEMPS THURS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAXES WELL INTO THE 70S EACH DAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A THREAT OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 120PM TUE...VFR CONTINUES THOUGH LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WITH BASES BTWN 5-7 KFT HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING IN NEAR BASE OF MEAN TROFFING ALOFT. THIS COULD GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR -SHRA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 2NDRY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY DIVING SE THROUGH ILLINOIS MAY GENERATE SOME MORE CLOUDS THROUGH LATE EVENING (BUT STAYING VFR) BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING. GOOD MIXING COMBINED WITH FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWEN LOW PRES WELL TO OUR N AND HIGH PRES NEAR TX COAST IS LEADING TO WLY WINDS GUSTING IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AOB 10KT. VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WED AND THU. DIURNAL MIXING LEADS TO WLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTN BEFORE COMING DOWN WED NITE. A QUICK MOVING MID LVL SHORT WV MOVING THROUGH WED NITE/EARLY THU AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION MAY LEAD TO A FEW -SHRA BUT BASES AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 3KFT. NEXT CHANCE FOR LOWER FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED LATE FRI THROUGH SAT AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH PSBL -SHRA/-TSRA. && .MARINE... AS OF 945AM TUE...NO SIG CHANGE TO FORECAST THIS UPDATE. WINDS OVER THE SOUNDS AND NRN WATERS APPEAR TO HAVE BACKED OFF TO AOB 20 KT AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY HIGER ELSEWHERE. WLY FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO INREASE 5-10KT AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEHIND UPR SRT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF. SEAS ROUGH IN A MIX OF LINGERING 7-9S SSW WAVE SYSTEM FROM YESTERDAY AND EVEN STEEPER 4-6S ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH LOCAL WLY WINDS. PREV DISC...WLY FLOW AND CAA WILL KEEP MIXING STRONG FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS. DURING THAT TIME POCKETS OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL TRIGGER A WEAK SFC REFLECTION...BUT ENOUGH TO TIGHTEN PRES GRAD TO ADD ANOTHER 5KT OR SO TO THE WINDS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS RANGE...WITH PERIODIC BREAKS OF 15 TO 20 KT THOUGH WED MORNING. FOR TODAY THE MIXING WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FREQUENTLY...EVEN INLAND. SEAS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DROP BELOW SCA STAGE. ONCE WINDS START TO DROP TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE TNT COULD SEE SEAS DROP BELOW 6 FT IN THE N WATERS FIRST...AND THEN IN ALL WATERS BY MID DAY WED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW BECOMING 20-25 KT BY THU AS A WEAK TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LVL VORT...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE. A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP TO OUR W BY FRI...AND AS IT TRACKS NE IT WILL INCREASE SW WINDS BACK TO SCA ALONG WITH SEAS INTO SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BY SUN INTO MON. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 2 AM TUE...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT TODAY FOR AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST. WEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE TODAY. DEWPTS EXPECTED TO CONT TO DROP AND SHLD SEE HUMIDITIES FALL TO NEAR 30 PERCENT OVER THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>095-098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-135- 150-156-158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...BTC/RF SHORT TERM...BTC/RF LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...MW MARINE...MW/SJ FIRE WEATHER...RF