000 
FXUS64 KMEG 152327 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
527 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS SHOW
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT SOME ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE TN/KY BORDER THIS MORNING OVER MIDDLE AND EAST
TENNESSEE AS OF MID AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 PM ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW MID LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AS OF FORECAST ISSUANCE
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE
TN/AR/MO/KY BORDER...40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST TN/NE AR AND
NW MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER 50S ACROSS NE MS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN
THE SHORT TERM IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR INTO THE EVENING AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
INTO THE MID SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S SOUTH WITH HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 12Z NAM/GFS INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
HOLD OFF PRIMARILY UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. AT
THIS POINT BASED ON THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...THINK THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL MS/ALA IN A BETTER INSTABILITY/MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REGION AND WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF THE HWO FOR NOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z MODEL RUN INDICATES LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE
PREVIOUS 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT AND TRIMMED BACK POPS TO PORTIONS OF
THE MO BOOTHEEL AND W TN. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

FEW AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THIS EVENING. GOES VISIBLE/IR
IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED STRATO CU AROUND FL030 DISSIPATING...AND
SHOULD GO SKY CLEAR MOST AREAS BY 01Z. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  30  50  34  59 /   0   0   0  20 
MKL  25  48  28  56 /   0   0   0  10 
JBR  26  48  32  53 /   0   0   0  20 
TUP  32  51  30  58 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$