000 FXUS65 KTFX 070552 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 1045 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2009 AVIATION SECTION UPDATED... .UPDATE... INCREASED POP...QPF...AND SNOW TOTAL FIELDS MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TO INCLUDE A GREATER CHANCE PRECIP CLOSER TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. HIGH WINDS HAVE NOT YET REACHED CRITERIA HOWEVER LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT INITIATION TIME IN THE WATCH IS ACCURATE. UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WATCH AREA EXCEPT JEFFERSON AND BROADWATER COUNTIES. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...SNOWFALL TOTALS CAME OUT VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WILL KEEP NUMBERS THE SAME IN THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SUK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 07/0545Z. AREAS OF SNOW...WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF KGTF SEEING MODERATE SNOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS...CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVE WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT REFORM AGAIN WED AM OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MT AS MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES. PREDOMINANT SNOW AREA WILL BE FROM KHLN TO KLWT. PRECIP MAY CHANGE TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AROUND MIDDAY AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE VFR TOMORROW BUT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN/NEAR PRECIP AREAS AND HIGHER PEAKS IN SW MT WILL BE OBSCURED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FROM CUT BANK TO LEWISTOWN WED AFTN AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH. WARANAUSKAS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2009/ A MOIST AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP TONIGHT OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH CONTINUE ABOVE 5000 FEET OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...AS A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. FURTHER EAST...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING AN AREA OF SNOW...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM CHESTER TO GREAT FALLS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE IN THIS REGION...BUT SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE IT ENDS LATE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY...BUT FOR NOW IT IS TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ZONES. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A RATHER WINDY DAY OVER THE REGION. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA. THE HIGH WIND WATCH AREA HAS BEEN MODIFIED A BIT...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WATCH...AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT RIDGETOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH OVER THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT THINGS TO CALM DOWN A BIT...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD...AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE A BIT. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...WITH LESSER CHANCES ELSEWHERE. BRUSDA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY...THEN BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OUT OF ALBERTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS...BUT WOULD EXPECT THAT SNOW SHOULD STILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHEN ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE SETS UP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN FOR GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLY THAT ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. QUESTION APPEARS TO BE WHETHER IT MOVES INTO MONTANA...OR COMES DOWN FARTHER EAST IN THE DAKOTAS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION THAT COOLS OFF TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...AND INCREASES THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WOULD EXPECT THAT IF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DOES COME IN FARTHER TO THE WEST TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY MORE. MPJ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 32 48 34 46 / 60 20 10 10 CTB 30 44 33 40 / 20 10 10 10 HLN 34 49 35 45 / 40 10 10 10 BZN 31 47 34 47 / 60 30 20 20 WEY 20 34 25 31 / 90 70 60 40 DLN 30 47 33 45 / 30 20 10 20 HVR 18 39 25 39 / 90 80 10 10 LWT 24 44 31 44 / 90 80 20 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MTZ012-014-046-049-050-054. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR MTZ015-055. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR MTZ011-013- 047-050-051. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR MTZ009-010-048. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR MTZ009-048. && $$ SHORT TERM...SUK LONG TERM...WARANAUSKAS AVIATION...WARANAUSKAS WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS