000 
FXUS63 KAPX 011128
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 428 AM/

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE 
CONUS AND EXPECTED TO BRING LATE SUMMER WARMTH AND DRY WEATHER TO 
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES DO ENTER 
THE PICTURE MIDWEEK AS A FAIRLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE STARVED COLD 
FRONT SLIPS THROUGH. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BUT SUBSTANTIALLY 
COOLER TEMPS LOOK ON TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. 

ADAM

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 428 AM/...TODAY

WONT/T SPEND TOO MUCH TIME ON THE OBVIOUS. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH 
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE 
TO THE REGION. WARM TEMPS (MID 80S TO SOME AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 
90S)...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND RESULTING LAKE BREEZES TODAY. THERE IS 
A NON-NONDESCRIPT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THROUGH WISCONSIN 
LOOKING TO PASS HARMLESSLY N/NE THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH 
PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER.  

ADAM

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 428 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEATHER NIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE 
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN BUT BARELY 
MOVES. THERMAL AXIS PUSHING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY (H8 TEMPS PUSHING 
20C...WARMEST WE/VE SEEN ALL SUMMER) COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE 
AND DEEP MIXING MAY FINALLY RESULT IN QUITE A FEW AREAS REACHING THE 
LOWER 90S. BUT CERTAINLY SOLID MID TO UPPER 80S IN ANY EVENT.  

LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN 
CONUS TODAY...FORECAST TO PRESS EASTWARD AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE  
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST AND GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH MODEL 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING SHUNTED 
WELL INTO CANADA. AT THE SFC...CURRENT TIMING BRINGS ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING THEN PASSING 
THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. 
QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS H8 TEMPS GO FROM NEAR 20C 
EARLY EARLY WED MORNING...TO BETWEEN 5C AND 10C BY THURSDAY MORNING. 
BUT AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO...MAIN MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO LAG 
JUST BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AND COINCIDENT WITH A RESPECTABLE BAND OF 
LOW-MID LEVEL F-GEN/QG-UPWARD SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG 
TEMPERATURE CHANGE. APPEARS OUR BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN WILL COME 
WITHIN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT DURING 
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WED NIGHT IN THE SE 
ZONES AS THE FRONT SLOWS. REGARDLESS...PRECIP CHANCES STILL APPEAR 
LOW WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS TO START/A LIMITED MOISTURE 
FEED/AND THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SHUNTED WELL NORTH...AND PLAN ON 
MAINTAINING ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS. NOT AT ALL IMPRESSED WITH THUNDER 
CHANCES HOWEVER GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POST-FRONTAL NATURE TO 
ANY PRECIP THAT MAY OCCUR. MAINLY FOR CONTINUITY...HAVE NOT 
COMPLETELY YANKED THUNDER WORDING BUT HAVE TRIMMED THUNDER CHANCES TO 
SLIGHT.         

LATER PERIODS...NO CHANGES. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED BY THE SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON LONG TERM FORECASTER...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY GIVEN 
THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF ONGOING HURRICANE ACTIVITY. 00Z ECMWF 
CONTINUES IT/S PERSISTENT NOTION OF PICKING UP WHAT WILL REMAIN OF 
GUSTAV AND SHOVING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY 
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED 
RAIN. THIS IDEA HAS SOME MERIT AND RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS DO HINT AT 
SOME OF THIS MOISTURE GETTING DRAWN UP INTO THE REGION ALONG THE 
STALLING FRONT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.   

ADAM

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 428 AM/

WITHIN THE STATIC HIGH PRESSURE REGIME...OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS/SMALL 
WAVES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. TENDENCY FOR INCREASED 
WINDS DURING THE DAY AND LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TURNING WINDS 
ONSHORE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING INCREASED 
SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TOWARD N/NW 
BY WED MORNING.

ADAM 

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 722 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. HOWEVER...MAY ONCE
AGAIN SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT PLN/APN TONIGHT...BRIEFLY
REDUCING VSBYS.

ADAM

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$