000 
FXUS64 KBMX 131540 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1040 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AND MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CENTRAL ALABAMA IS STARTING OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THIS 
MORNING...WITH THE ADDITION OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. 
TEMPERATURES HAVE HIT 80 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE 
NORTH...WITH LOW 80S IN THE SOUTH. 12Z SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A LARGE 
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.8 
INCHES...WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO USHER IN 
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. 

AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE MAXIMUM HAS SERVED AS 
THE INITIATION POINT FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING...AS SHOWERS CURRENTLY 
ARE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS 
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXPECT 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY 
AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PWS...AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...THE THREATS 
WITH STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. 
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS WELL. 

WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACTIVITY...HIGHS THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY...AND VERY DEPENDENT ON WHICH LOCATIONS 
RECEIVE A PASSING SHOWER. WITH GENERALLY SCT TO BKN SKIES 
ALREADY...AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING STEADY 
TEMPERATURES AFTER NOON...WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR 
TWO FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WEST. 

UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT SOON.

14 

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF MOST PLACES BY AROUND 
14Z.  SCT TO BKN CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 15Z WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER THAT TIME...BECOMING SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS AFTER 18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSTMS LIKELY WITH SOME 
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 02Z AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING 
BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. DUE TO EXPECTED 
ISOLATED NATURE WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AFTER 03S.  WITH MANY AREAS 
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE RAINFALL IT IS LIKELY WE WILL SEE SOME STRATUS 
AND FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT SO INDICATED MVFR IN BKN CIGS AND  
VSBYS AFTER 09Z.

41

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$