000 FXUS63 KEAX 252051 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 351 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008 .DISCUSSION... FOR THIS EVENING...EARLY ON...MAY BE SEEING SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP THIS AFTERNOON. MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ALSO IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 18Z NAM SHOWING OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI AT 00Z WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP. WILL CARRY A CATEGORICAL AREA FOR THIS CONVECTION...AND TAPER OFF POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH TO COVER THE MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS. PC CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING AS MID-LVL IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH. DEPENDING ON ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LLJ...CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A MCS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST. MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR SOME 40-55 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION AS PROPAGATES EASTWARD. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL TO THE NE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...LIKELY REACHING NORTHEASTERN KANSAS/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI NEAR MIDNIGHT. EVENTUALLY A SOUTHEASTWARD TREND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS SFC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. SOUNDINGS POINT TO PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS...AS SIGNIFICANT MID-LVL DRY AIR INTRUSION EXISTS ABOVE 800 MB AND LOW-LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATED. GIVEN THE VERY LARGE CAPE VALUES POSSIBLE...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TORNADIC THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AS 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS. DESPITE THE LIKELY ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED HELICITY. MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS. BIGGEST QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVY RAIN...AS QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW THE MESOSCALE INTERACTION OF LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT OVERNIGHT STORMS AND LOCATION OF BOUNDARIES. MODELS ARE ALSO AT SOME DISAGREEMENT...WITH GFS REMAINING THE OUTLIER AT THE MOMENT. PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF/NAM/UKMET ATTM. FOR NOW BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST CORRIDOR WILL BE ORIENTED IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...OR ALONG AXIS OF H850 THETA-E CONVERGENCE...NOSE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND IN A PRIME LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR LVL JET. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CAN SHIFT LOW-LVL BOUNDARIES FURTHER SOUTH...THEN HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS COULD SHIFT FROM A KANSAS CITY TO SEDALIA LINE BY MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED QPF OVER THESE AREAS AND WILL EXPAND FLASH FLOOD WATCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL QPF OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN BIGGER QUESTIONS ARISE FOR THE MONDAY FORECAST...AS SITUATION IS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON OVERNIGHT EVOLUTION OF STORMS. EXPECTING MCSS TO TAKE THEIR TIME IN CLEARNING THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAVE MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER COOL SUBSIDENCE. THE BIG KEY TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE KEY ON WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ENDS UP...AND HOW SOON THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER. HOWEVER...SIGNALS STILL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. UNFORTUNATELY...DOESNT LOOK LIKE WERE THROUGH WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AS YET ANOTHER MCS WOULD LIKELY CROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS STILL REMAINS A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL FORECAST...HOWEVER IF THESE SIGNALS CONTINUE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. MID-LVL RIDGING WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE FRONT DROPPING TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW AVERAGE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A QUICK RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER UPR TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH US. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GET SHUNTED TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ENTER THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 31 && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL GO WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS AS IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL BE BOTH SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT AND AMEND IF NEED BE. WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ROLLING OUT OF KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MORE LIKELY AREA FOR THAT MCS WILL BE NORTH OF KANSAS CITY...BUT WITH POTENTIAL OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS COMPLEX RIDING INTO THE KANSAS CITY AREA ON MONDAY MORNING...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL THUNDER AFTER DAYBREAK. PC && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM MONDAY FOR MOZ001- MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ011- MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ020-MOZ021- MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031- MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040. KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM MONDAY FOR KSZ025- KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105. $$