000 FXUS62 KILM 251955 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 345 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN MORE DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STRICTLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS 500MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE REGION EXTENDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON 1800 UTC TEMPERATURES AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...DEWPOINTS AS AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL NIGHT IS SHAPING UP WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DISSIPATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THESE NUMBERS FOR MONDAY MORNINGS LOWS. COULD SEE ONE OR TWO READINGS OF 50 IN THE COOLER BLUEBERRY BOGS INLAND. RECORDS FOR MAY 26 SHOULD BE SECURE...WITH 48 IN WILMINGTON...46 IN FLORENCE AND 53 IN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT DRIER THAN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE...FOG SHOULD NOT BE A BIG CONCERN...MIGHT SEE A BIT AROUND SOME OF PONDS...WITH LITTLE ELSE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EXPECT PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY TO FLATTEN OUT BY LATE TUESDAY AS SUCCESSIVE UPPER IMPULSES ERODE IT. AT THE SFC...THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE HIGHS CENTER WILL ORIENT ITSELF WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND DROPPING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A VEIL OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT...WITH FLATTENED TOPS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL INCREASE SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PRIOR DAY. MINS WILL BE AT OR ON THE MILDER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE INCREASED THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WITH THE NAM THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS. TO ACCOMODATE FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 20S NORTH OF THE NC-SC BORDER AFTER 08Z WED. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THESE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE IF OTHER PARAMETERS WILL NEED TO BE CHANGED IF TIMING OF THIS BACKDOOR CFP BECOMES SOONER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3PM SUNDAY...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON WED. INSTABILITY AND FORCING BOTH SEEM VERY MINIMAL AND NO MORE THAN LOW END CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED AND THUNDER COULD ARGUABLY BE REMOVED FROM FCST SHOULD DRIER AND MORE STABLE TRENDS CONTINUE IN GUIDANCE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHILE NORTHWEST MID LVL FLOW CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD RAISE DEWPOINTS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO AND UNLESS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE THERE ARE NO REAL MECHANISMS FOR PRECIP GENERATION. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...PUSHING WELL INLAND BY EARLY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN THE CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WILL GO WITH AROUND 10 KNOTS ALL ZONES WITH A VEERING TREND FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT SWELL REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WAVE SPECTRUM PLOT AT 41013 SHOWING ONE MAIN WIND WAVE. WITH WEAK WINDS THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF 2-3 FEET SEAS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGE AND CENTER OF SFC HIGH WILL KEEP SFC WINDS IN CHECK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AVERAGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INTO TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR SHORE WHERE OCCASIONALLY WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 15 KT DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE THE WIND DRIVEN VARIETY IN THE 2 TO OCCASIONALLY 3 FOOT RANGE...WITH THE LATTER RESULTING FROM THE SEA BREEZE. VERY LITTLE IN THE LONG PERIOD SWELL DEPARTMENT TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS DURING THIS SHORT TERM...VIA WAVEWATCH3 OUTPUT. TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. MODELS INDICATE SW WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT. WITH THESE HIER SPEEDS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH LOW PERIOD 4 FOOTERS TO BE FCST FROM FRYING PAN SHOALS NORTHWARD. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3PM SUNDAY...SWRLY FLOW THAT MAY INITIALLY BE PINCHED BY APPROACHING FRONT AND FLAT WAVE WILL VEER AND DECREASE IN SPEED WITH FROPA BY MIDDAY OR EARLY PM. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY LEVELS. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP THAT WILL FINISH OUT THE LONG TERM PD. SEAS WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 2 TO 4 FT EARLY ON AND MAY DIMINISH A FOOT OR SO BY FRIDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...KEEBLER SHORT TERM...HOEHLER LONG TERM...BACON AVIATION...KEEBLER