000 
FXUS64 KBMX 251717
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ON THEIR WAY
TO REACHING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT...IF
NOT PROHIBIT...ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SO
FAR...NOT EVEN A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD HAS MANAGED TO FORM. ENJOY
A BEAUTIFUL MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

12/SIRMON

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DAY 2 OF THOSE SIZZLING DAYS OF SUMMER...AND ALREADY SOUNDING LIKE A 
SKIPPING CD. PATCHY MORNING FOG MIXING OUT BY MID-MORNING...
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AREA 
WIDE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. 

A BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE IN A NORTHWEST TO 
SOUTHEAST FASHION...BE IT A TAD FURTHER WEST TODAY. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISM TO GET ANY STORMS GOING. BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH.
THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS NIGHT FALLS...ISOLATED STORMS WILL END. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO 
RANGE FROM MID 60S EAST TO LOW 70S WEST.

JONES/90

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT ITS
HIGHEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.

BOTH GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. SINCE THE
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING FOR
THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. ALSO...MODELS DO NOT SHOW
ANY KIND OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...THIS IS NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WE ARE NOW SHIFTING TO MAINLY SURFACE
BASED PARAMETERS RATHER THAN UPPER LEVELS. IF THIS FRONT WERE TO
MOVE DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN IT WOULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
IT WOULD ENHANCE LIFT DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THAT
WONT BE THE CASE THOUGH UNLESS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN DRAMATICALLY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN ON THURSDAY DRYING OUT THE UPPER
LEVELS AND THEREFORE PUTTING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE
MEXMOS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THEY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.

10/ARM 

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 09 AND 
14Z...AND MORE LIKELY AT MGM...TOI AND TCL.  OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR 
CONDITIONS. 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

$$