000 FXUS64 KHGX 171626 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1126 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008 .UPDATE... AN UPDATE FORECAST WAS SENT OUT FOR ON GOING LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MAY HAVE MORE VIRGA THEM THAN ACTUAL RAIN HITTING THE SURFACE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL CARRY THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD DOWN TEMPS AS WELL AS ANY EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE VIRGA. DROPPED MAX TEMPS TODAY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND THAT MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR NOW LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL MAKE ANY FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THE AFTENROON PACKAGE. 39 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008/ DISCUSSION... UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO BAJA WILL SEND AN IMPULSE ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR (ALREADY SOME APPROACHING SW ZONES) BUT DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER SUGGESTS VAST MAJORITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF VIRGA. KEPT SOME SILENT 10% IN TODAYS FCST. MOSTLY EXPECT SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING THRU. SW PORTION OF OF THE TROF WILL CUT OFF NEAR BAJA AND PATTERN OVER TX WILL TRANSITION TO A DRY NW FLOW AS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROF PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUN AFTN. GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF SUN AND A SSW/SW WIND AT THE SFC AND H85. PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WARM AIR ABOVE THE SFC AND LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM. 47 MARINE... NOT TOO MANY ISSUES FOR THE SHORT-TERM OF THE UPCOMING FCST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS BY TONIGHT THEN FOLLOWED BY SWLY WINDS SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW/TROF. SLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BY MON. ANOTHER FRONT MOVING DOWN OFF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH LOWERING PRESS- URES TO THE N/NW WILL HELP TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE ELEVATED WINDS AND DEEPENING FETCH OFF THE GULF COULD HERALD THE RETURN OF ADVISORY FLAGS BY THIS TIME AS SEAS/WINDS RES- POND ACCORDINGLY. 41 AVIATION... HIGH CLOUDS HAVE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING/AFTN. RADAR ALSO PICKING UP SOME ECHOES EMBEDDED WITH IN THE SWLY UPPER FLOW...BUT SOUNDINGS/OBS ARE RATHER DRY SO THERE ARE DOUBTS AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. AT THIS TIME WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MENTION OF PCPN OUT OF THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE (SAVE FOR THE BRIEF MVFR VISBYS FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING). 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 80 61 89 63 93 / 10 10 0 0 0 HOUSTON (IAH) 79 61 89 66 92 / 10 10 0 0 0 GALVESTON (GLS) 75 70 84 72 84 / 20 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...39