000 
FXUS63 KEAX 111617 CCA
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008


.DISCUSSION...

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY. PAST 
COUPLE OF HOURS WORTH OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SUSTAINED 
AND GUST WIND READINGS ARE ALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ALSO UPDATED 
THE SKY AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS ARE 
MOVING EAST A LITTLE FASTER. 

CUTTER

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

/ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008/

UPPER TROUGH DEEPENED AS ADVERTISED WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW 
ALSO BOMBING OUT...RESULTING IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE 
CWA OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH GUSTED OVER 45 MPH AT TIMES 
HAVE STARTED TO WEAKEN. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY AS IS AND ALLOW TO 
EXPIRE AT 12Z OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA. MAY HAVE TO CANCEL EARLY THE 
REST OF THE ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...WRAP AROUND RAIN IS QUICKLY 
EXITING THE EASTERN CWA AND WILL SWEEP OUT POPS SHORTLY AFTER 
SUNRISE. CLEARING IS OCCURRING A BIT FASTER AND HAVE SPED UP THE 
PROCESS BY A FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CLOUDINESS TO FORM 
IN THE WAKE OF THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AS MUCH DRIER AIR AND 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WORKS EAST. 

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT 
WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ARRIVE ON 
TUESDAY. FAVORED THE GFS/ECMWF TIMING OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS 
HAS IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST MO 
WHERE COOLING WILL BE STRONGEST/FASTEST. RAISED POPS SOME ON 
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHOWN CONSIDERABLE 
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. 

FOR PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS WEDNESDAY HAS LOOKED DRY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF 
PRECIPITATION...LOWERED CLOUD COVER...AND INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURES 
BY 2-4 DEGREES. 

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS DEEP SFC CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER EAST. BACK
EDGE OF CLOUD COVER EDGING INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI ATTM AND SHOULD
CLEAR THE TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

$$