000 
FXUS64 KOHX 082039
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT PRECIP AREA COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE MID STATE.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MARCHED EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES EARLIER ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP. INTENSITIES
HAVE SINCE DECREASED.

LOOK FOR MAINLY SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING. NQA RADAR SHOWING SOME WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN TN CURRENTLY. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT EXCEPT ALONG
THE PLATEAU WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID 
STATE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE AND MORE SCT 
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. IN THE AFTERNOON...A SLIGHT 
RISK OF SEVERE WILL AGAIN BE WITH US. AS PER SPCS OUTLOOK...I WILL 
INCLUDE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE FOR ALL BUT THE CENTRAL 
AND NORTHERN PLATEAU.

AFTER A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SATURDAY...ANOTHER MORE POTENT FRONTAL 
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GATHER STRENGTH TO OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL 
HAVE MORE WIND ENERGY WITH IT AND WITH INCREASING 
INSTABILITIES...ANOTHER SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE. OMEGA FIELDS 
REVEAL THAT A PRE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NT AND THEN 
THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 
LIKELY POPS FOR SAT NT AND SUNDAY.  

FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS...GFS TOUGH TO BEAT THIS ROUND. WILL THEREFORE 
GO WITH THE MAV NUMBERS.

IN THE EXT FCST...QUICK EASTWARD MOVING SFC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A 
TRANQUIL AND PARTLY CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THEN...ANOTHER 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF MORE SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY 
NIGHT AND WED. INTERESTINGLY...LIFTED INDEX VALUES FALL TO -12 FOR 
WED AT 18Z SO THAT COULD END UP BEING A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM AS 
WELL. 

OTW...TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL EXPECT FOR WED 
MORNING WHEN MINS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      60  78  56  77 /  30  30  40  10 
CLARKSVILLE    56  77  53  76 /  30  30  30  10 
CROSSVILLE     58  73  56  72 /  60  20  50  10 
COLUMBIA       60  81  58  78 /  30  30  40  10 
LAWRENCEBURG   60  83  60  79 /  30  30  30  10 
WAVERLY        58  79  55  78 /  30  30  30  10 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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