000 
FXUS65 KVEF 172216
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
317 PM PDT THU APR 17 2008.

SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY UNDER SUNNY 
SKIES. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY 
AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE WEEKEND. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO 
REACH PROJECTED HIGHS. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP TOMORROW. AN 
INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP MIX THE 
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WONT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES ARE SOME 10 
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. CHANGES START OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT AS 
STRONG TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. TROUGH WILL SETTLE 
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND AS OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS 
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN CONDUCIVE 
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE 
DESERT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH 
THIS PACKAGE FOR THE EAST SLOPE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND OWENS 
VALLEY FOR POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE EVENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHER WIND HEADLINES WILL SURELY BE NEEDED IN TIME.  
AGAIN...WARMER TOMORROW THEN THE COOL DOWN OCCURS OVER THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW SITUATED OVER THE 
PACNW AND A FRONT TO COME THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND THEN 
LATER WASH OUT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT TODAY AND CONFIDENCE IN 
LONG TERM FORECAST IS MUCH IMPROVED AS WELL. CONCERNS FOR THE LONG 
TERM ARE WINDS SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES. RIDGING IN THE EAST HALF OF 
THE CONUS WILL KEEP THE LOWS EJECTION NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH 
CENTRAL CANADA AND MAKE FOR ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A 
BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP ANY STRONG SYSTEMS AT 
BAY...HOWEVER MODELS DO AGREE A MINOR WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE 
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE A PINCHED OFF PIECE OF 
ENERGY FROM SUNDAYS SYSTEM. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY EVENTS AND HAVE 
CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS VERY WIDE IN ITS 
RANGE OF POSSIBLE VALUES. I DID TREND THE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARDS 
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING FOR A WARMING 
TREND AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BLOCK 
MOVES EAST AND BRINGS RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VERY VARIABLE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE DAY AND BECOME NEAR CALM THIS EVENING TO 
UNDER 5 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT MOST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY 
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FORMS IN 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE OCCURRING. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL 
SEE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. 

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...ASIDE FROM THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AREA WINDS ARE 
VERY LIGHT TODAY AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE 
RIVER VALLEY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TODAY. A STRONG 
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS 
WEEKEND AND IT WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS FOR OUR AREA THEN. FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON OUR AREA WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 
20 KNOT RANGE AS THE WEEKEND STORM FORMS.  
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY CREATING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE 
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL 
WELL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...A FIRE WEATHER 
WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     EVENING FOR NVZ460>466.
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     EVENING FOR AZZ101-102.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     EVENING FOR CAZ227>229.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING 
     FOR CAZ519-520.
&&

$$

PIERCE/JACQUES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS