000 FXUS65 KABQ 170430 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1030 PM MDT WED APR 16 2008 .UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO STRIP ZONES OF EXPIRED WIND ADVISORY AND TO TWEAK SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT IN PORTIONS OF WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA. ONE OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES IS JUST HOW MUCH THE RECENT WARM CONDITIONS HAVE WARMED GROUND TEMPS AND HOW MUCH THAT WILL MITIGATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON PAVEMENT AND BARE GROUND. SPOKE WITH THE WFO PUEBLO FOLKS AND THEY HAD ONE REPORT OF A LITTLE BIT OF ICING UP ON ROADS AT A SITE ABOVE 8500 FEET. EVEN AT CO SPRINGS ROADS AT MID EVENING ROADS WERE GENERALLY REPORTED AS WET. SO FEEL THAT IT IS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT BELOW 7000 OR MAYBE EVEN 8000 FEET ROAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND LOCALIZED MAINLY TO LOCALES WHERE THE HEAVIER RATES OF SNOW FALL. VEGETATION WILL BE A DIFFERENT MATTER AS THEY WILL COOL OF COURSE MUCH MORE QUICKLY. ALSO ADDED MENTION IN THE UPDATED WINTER WX STATEMENT OF LOCALIZED 8 INCH ACCUM UP ABOVE ABOUT 8500 FEET NORTHERN MTS AND UP TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES IN ZONES 10 AND 11. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MDT WED APR 16 2008... THREE TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ABOVE 7000 FEET. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS IT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SANDIA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS ARE FORECASTING 700 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS 6 TO MINUS 8 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH IS AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE SAME LOCATIONS. THUS...EXPECT LESS COVERAGE AND GENERALLY LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS MENTIONED. AGGRIVATING SNOW PROBLEMS IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. SPEEDS SHOULD REACH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM RATON TO ROY AND CLAYTON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN ALSO. SNOW SHOWERS...RAINS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREAA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS BACK INTO A TROUGH...AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN DIMINISH ON THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THE WARMUP WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS RETURN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRIVING THE POLAR JET STREAM INTO OUR AREA AND CREATING A STRING OF WINDY DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. 44 .AVIATION... GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND A FEW HOURS AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH. GENERAL TIMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6 PM TO 9 AM THURSAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THURSAY MORNING...PRIMARILY FAVORING THE KLVS TO KCAO AREA. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002>007-010-011. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ005-011>013-016>021-026. && $$ 43