000 
FXUS61 KBGM 161839
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
239 PM EDT WED APR 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND A DAY
TO DAY WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY A FEW CIRRUS FLOATING BY WITH CLR SKIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER AND VRY LITTLE ACTIVE WX ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE L/M 50S WITH WARMER TEMPS ACRS THE LK
PLAIN AS EXPECTED. HV LOWERED TEMPS BY 1-2 DEGREES FOR THIS AFTN
BASED ON PROJECTED H8 TEMPS TODAY AND UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
YESTERDAY. FCST MAXES IN THE MID 60S WOULD REQUIRE ANOTHER 10-15F
FOR TODAY SO HV NUDGED HIGHS DOWN A TAD. OTHER THAN THAT...VRY
LITTLE GOING ON UNDER HIPRES. UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS ARE ON
THE STREET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING...BOTH IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE...WILL
REMAIN OUR PRIMARY FEATURES THIS PERIOD. 

DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MANY LOCALES
SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE 70S. 

GIVEN LOWERING 10-HOUR FUELS...THE RISK FOR GRASS FIRES WILL BE ON
THE RISE WITH TIME THIS WEEK. 

STILL SOME SUBTLE MODEL DISCREPANCIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
AND NAM SOLUTIONS KEEP A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH
THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE EUROPEAN APPEARS TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
SLIDING THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY. IN ANY
EVENT...MOISTURE LOOKS RESTRICTED...SO WEVE KEPT THE FORECAST
RAIN-FREE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 
GFS/GEFS DIVERGING FROM REST OF INTERNATIONAL MODEL SUITE BY
BRINGING CLOSED LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GTLKS AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SAT NITE-SUN. REST OF GUIDANCE SUPPRESSES LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE MAY BE HINTING AT
A SLIGHT NWD TREND OF LOW TRACK. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME WEAK FORCING...ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
SOLUTIONS...TO WARRANT CONTINUING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SAT NITE-SUN. FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THE REST
OF THE PERIOD APPEARS TO FAVOR STRENGTHENING OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR NO SIG WX. AREA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT. WINDS DECOUPLE TO LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOWS
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM A SWLY DIRECTION 10 KTS OR
LESSON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THRU FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT-SUN...VFR. CHC -SHRA
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...PVB
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB