000 FXUS62 KMHX 160318 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1118 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2008 .SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST WILL CONSOLIDATE AND SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PRODUCING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL FINALLY GET KICKED OUT TO THE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... STRONG NLY WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A SPOTTER CALL EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED INCREASED WATER LEVEL RISES ALONG CLUBFOOT CREEK AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING PROPERTY. NO FLOODING OF ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CRAVEN AND CARTERET COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES AND CREEKS OF THE PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH THE NEXT TO TIDE CYCLES FOR MINOR FLOODING TO CONTINUE AS STRONG NLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. INLAND...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF WITH SOME DECOUPLING OCCURRING. TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID/LWR 40S WHERE DECOUPLING OCCURRING AND COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN PROTECTED INLAND AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS PATCHY FROST WORDING...SO NO CHANGES TO WX. TEMPS TRENDING A BIT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ACROSS OBX SO LOWER MINS A CATEGORY. UPDATED FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE SLUGGISH SURFACE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AND SLOWLY STRENGTHENS WELL OFF THE COAST PRODUCING A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHES OF INSTABILITY CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS TUESDAY AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRIER. WE ARE EXPECTING A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE OF 2-4 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 25% WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE TO GIVE MAXIMUM LEAD TIME. THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY GET KICKED OUT TO THE NE THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST AND SW FLOW PREVAILS. STILL UNCERTAINTY ON SATURDAY-TUESDAY FORECAST AS BLOCKY UPPER PATTERN LEADS TO SLUGGISH MOVEMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS RTES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT VFR CONDITION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GOOD MIXING WED WILL BRING GUSTY NLY WINDS ACROSS RTES ONCE AGAIN. LOW WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE SOME AFTERNOON CU AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AREA FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W ON SUNDAY...BUT AM EXPECTING CONTINUING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO GRIDS WITH MINOR CHANGES TO EXISTING TEXT FORECAST TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. STRONG LOW PRES STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THU BRINGING GALES ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH WED AND SCA ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK. UPDATED CWF SENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ENERGETIC UPR LVL LO PRES CONTS TO DIG THRU THE SE THIS AFTN. SFC LO FORMG OFF THE GA/FL CST WI TITE GRAD BTWN IT AND SFC RDG OVR THE MS VALLEY. WND OVR THE CNTRL WTRS THIS AFTN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WI GUSTS INTO GALE FORCE. GRAD WL CONT TO TITEN TNGT AS LO DEEPENS AND FORMS MULTIPLE CNTRS. THE LO WL MV UP THE CST WED AND STALL OFFSHR OF NC THRU MUCH OF THU. SREF HAS ONLY A SMALL CHC OF GALE AFT WED AFTN. WL XTND GALE WRNG ON CNTRL WTRS THRU WED...AFT WHICH LO SHUD STRT TO WKN AND LFT N...SCA OVR RMNDR OF WTRS. WV ENERGY SHUD BE PREDOMINATELY WND GENERATED THRU THU...WI SEAS XPCTD TO MAX AT 12 TO 13 FT IN CNTRL WTRS...UP TO 6 TO 8 FT OTHR CSTL WTRS. AM XPCTG A SWELL TO DVLP IN THE WAKE OF THE LO AS IT LIFTS OUT SO AM XPCTG SCA TO CONT OVR NRN WTRS THRU THE RMNDR OF THE WK. NXT SYS APPCHS ON SAT WI RDG BLDG IN BHND IT ON MON. ONLY WK SYSTEMS XPCTD THRU THE MID OF NXT WK SOWND AND SEAS SHUD RMN BLO SCA CRIT. .HIGH SURF... A STRONG ONSHORE N TO NE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF WAVES OF 8 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE IN OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY...MAINLY FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH. WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THIS LOCATION/TIME PERIOD. WAVE FORECAST FOR OUTER BANKS HYDE COUNTY IS VERY SIMILAR. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE ISLAND BEING ORIENTED SW-NE...ANY 8 FOOT WAVES WILL STAY OFFSHORE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS ZONE IN THE ADVISORY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ029- 044>047-079>081-090>095-098. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ093-095. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ103. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...SK/CGG MARINE...SK/CGG