000 FXUS62 KMHX 251947 CCA AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 336 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N SUN AND SLIDE OFFSHORE MON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W TUE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... CONTINUED MAINLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS ATMS REMAINS VERY DRY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NEAR CST THIS AFTN WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. APPEARS S CST WILL HAVE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AS AREAS FURTHER N AND W WILL SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER SW FLOW. WILL RANGE LOWS FROM MID 30S COOLER SRN CST SPOTS TO LOWER 40S N. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MILDER AND DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES CONTS OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE N THRU MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK KEEPING SW FLOW OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 INLAND WED WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S BY FRI. OBX WILL BE COOLER WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DGR RANGE WED NIGHT THEN WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 50S BY FRI NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FOLLOWED HPC AND BROUGHT COLD FRONT THROUGH SAT. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE LACKING MOISTURE SO KEPT LOW CHC POPS WITH LIGHT QPF SAT. QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS SAT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. APPEARS COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERUNNING PRECIP IN WAKE OF FRONT THROUGH SUN...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY KEPT POPS LOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ESPCLY BASED ON 12Z GFS. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING TUE WITH SMALL POP LATER IN THE DAY. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE TO THE SE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KT WED MORNING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS MIXING COMMENCES. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS ON SAT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. && .MARINE... WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER THE WATERS AS GRADIENT RELAXES WITH SFC HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME SW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN WATERS AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT OVER THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE NORTH OF LOOKOUT THROUGH WED WITH COMBINATION OF SW WINDS AND RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD NE SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. CENTRAL WATERS WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL CRAFT SEAS A BIT LONGER WITH 6 FT SEAS CONTINUING INTO THU MORNING. SW FLOW CONTINUES THU AND FRI WITH SFC HIGH WELL OFFSHORE TO THE EAST AND NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PRE FRONTAL WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THU AND FRI AHEAD OF FRONT BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT 20 KT FOR NOW WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE IN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SFC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS ON SAT WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUN. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ158. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...RF AVIATION...JW MARINE...JW