000 FXUS61 KRNK 250717 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 317 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY TODAY...AND WE WILL START A TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND STALL JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATE THIS WEEK THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WITH SHARP UPPER TROF MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD START WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WARMING THAT YDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE DROPS SOUTH THIS AFTN AND SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AND MIXES DOWN WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TONIGHT WITH 850 WINDS INCREASING TO ARND 50KTS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN MIXED TONIGHT KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED WHILE VALLEYS DECOUPLE. MEANWHILE A FAST MOVING WAVE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTR TOWARD THE REGION. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY SCRAPE THE NORTHERN EXTREME OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WED AS THE FRONT...DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY PRODUCING PCPN ALONG AND NEAR THE STALLED FRONT...AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING US ON THE MILD SIDE...AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PLAYED THE HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH. RAISED HIGHS FRIDAY IN SOUTHSIDE WHERE READINGS MAY APPROACH 80 DEGREES. KEPT THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ELECTED TO HOLD ON TO CHCY POPS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SE WV SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...REMOVED LIGHT POPS FROM SUNDAY FORECAST. ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF OUR FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MONDAY...WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST AS A SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A 25 KFT SCT-BKN DECK WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. MIXING WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO APPROACH 25 KTS LATER TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A RAPID FRONTAL TRANSITION...AND WITH THE FRONT LINGERING TO THE NORTH RATHER THAN OSCILLATING OVER THE AREA...ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RESTRICTIONS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE BLACKSBURG AREA OF CONCERN FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... FIRE DANGER STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO PICK UP AFTER NOON...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 2-3 PM OUT EAST. LOOKING AT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS WEST. HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20%-25% RANGE FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS GREENBRIER COUNTY AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FIRE DANGER IN THE FWF AND HWO PRODUCT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...DS/KK AVIATION...KK/KM FIRE WEATHER...