000 
FXUS66 KEKA 250328 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
828 PM PDT MON MAR 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
TUESDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
NIGHT. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO AS LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FEET. A SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE MADE THIS EVENING WAS TO DROP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE SEAS. CURRENT AND INCOMING SWELL REMAINS SHY OF
10 FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY.  OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK FINE ATTM.  BURGER

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAKENING FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO NW CA LAST 
NIGHT HAS SLOWLY MOVED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. REMNANTS OF THE 
DYING FRONT IS OBSERVABLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A WEST TO EAST 
BAND OF ALTO STRATUS EXTENDING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MENDOCINO 
COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE POST FRONTAL 
SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF CALIFORNIA. 

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY 
AROUND 6 HOURS. THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER 
SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 2500-3500 FEET FOR A BRIEF TIME ON WED. THE RAIN 
WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE 
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. WILL HAVE A BREAK IN 
PRECIPITATION THU THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
OVER THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW BRINGING MORE 
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FRI. THERE HAVE BEEN MODEL RUN TO RUN 
INCONSISTENCIES ON THE POSITION OF THIS LOW...BUT THE LATEST MODELS 
FORECAST THE LOW TO MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF A RIDGE 
BUILDING OVER PAC NW SAT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUN. A ACTIVE 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TH


&&


AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE 
REGION EXCEPT FOR KACV WHERE MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN THE NORM FOR MOST 
OF THE DAY.  THE LOW CIGS AT KACV ARE MAINLY DUE TO WEAK ONSHORE 
FLOW AND REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM EARLY THIS 
MORNING.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT THAT SITE WITH WIDESPREAD VFR 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ALONG THE 
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FAR AS THE FORMATION OF SOME LOCALIZED 
STRATUS BUT MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO POINT TO STAYING MAINLY LOW 
CLOUD FREE UNTIL LATE NIGHT TUES AND EARLY WED WHEN THE NEXT 
DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN/DRIZZLE BACK TO THE COAST. JT

&&


.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

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