000 FXUS62 KMHX 120129 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 929 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES TONIGHT...FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A PAIR OF MID TO UPPER SHORT WAVES AFFECTING THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...PRODUCING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE THAN NRN STREAM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON WED...BUT IS STILL LIMITED. RADAR DATA SHOWS MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RETURNS S OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OVER ERN NC BUT NOT SEEING ANY OF THIS MEASURE YET. GIVEN THIS AND VERY DRY LAYER NOTED ON 12/00Z MHX RAOB BELOW MID LVL CLOUD LAYER...MADE MINOR UPDATE TO SCALE BACK POPS A BIT EXCEPT FAR SRN COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED LATE WHEN MOST OF TEMP DROP ANTICIPATED...BUT STILL AOA NORMAL MOSTLY IN THE M40S WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS GOING MORE W OR WNW TOWARDS MORNING AS SFC BNDRY MOVES THRU. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW ON WED. HOWEVER...THE DRYING AND SUBSEQUENT CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS OUT OF THE W WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN TROFS CROSSING THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH LATE WEEK. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR FRI...DESPITE INCREASED IN MOISTURE DONT SEE THE SUPPORT OR ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MID/LOW LVL FLOW WILL START TO FEED OFF THE GULF...BRINGING IN WARM/MOIST AIR LATE FRI INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS...EXP TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S BY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONCENSUS WITH THE GFS BRINGING A TROF BY THE REGION SAT NT. THE SFC REFLECTION IS RATHER WEAK...BUT THE MID LVLS SHOWS A STRENGTHENING OF THE 850MB WINDS/RH OVER THE AREA. DYNAMICS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT WITH WARM UNSTABLE AIR COULD SEE SOME SCT CONVECTION SAT EVENING/NIGHT. A SLIGHT COOLER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW SUN...BUT WITH A NEAR ZONAL PATTERN EXP TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONTINUE VFR OVERNIGHT. DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CONFLUENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPR LVL CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO THEN EXPECT CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN. WNW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KT FROM MID MORN INTO THE AFTN WED WITH DECENT GRDNT AND MIXING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. CONTINUED DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. WE ARE INDICATING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .MARINE... AS SRT WV AND SFC LOW CROSS OVERNIGHT WILL SE SW WINDS INCREASE A BIT AS THEY APPROACH THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO WNW LATE AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE. LOOKS LIKE BEST WINDS WILL BE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND INTO MID DAY WED WITH DECENT GRDNT. SPEEDS WILL APPROACH 20 KTS BUT OFFSHR DIR SHLD LIMIT SEAS. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY AND ARE LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. STRENGTHENING RETURN SW FLOW TO 10-15/15-20 KT EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH MOVES WELL OFF THE COAST. SW FLOW 15-20 KT TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GFS HAS A COUPLE OF STRONG LOWS AND GALE FORCE WINDS/10 FT SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK THOUGH SO WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS FORECAST OF A SINGLE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SJ NEAR TERM...MW/SJ SHORT TERM...SJ LONG TERM...SJ AVIATION...RF/JME MARINE...RF/JME