000 
FXUS63 KMPX 191113 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 AM CST TUE FEB 19 2008

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...

CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. FEATURE
IS DROPPING ALMOST DUE SOUTH AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT COUPLED WITH DECENT UPGLIDE AND
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SW AND
SOUTHERN MN BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASE OVER FAR EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ONCE AGAIN TODAY FROM 950 TO 850 MB WITH 8.6 DEG C/KM
PROGGED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN CWA. EVEN SOME LOW
LEVEL CAPE SEEN. THEREFORE WENT QUITE A BIT ABOVE THE VARIOUS MOS
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. USED CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MN
INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME NEAR EAU CLAIRE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE MINUS 20S
NORTH OF US THIS MORNING. CUT MOS LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING AND TRIMMED BACK ON THE HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL. BRISK
NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRID INDICATED MINUS 25 BY 00Z IN THE WESTERN CWA AND
AROUND 06Z IN THE EAST. WILL BE ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THE CWA STARTING WITH THE TIMES ABOVE AND CONTINUING IT THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS PRETTY CONSISTENT ON BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED CLOUDS AND ADDED SOME
SMALL POPS FOR NOW. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE. COLLABORATION YIELDED DROPPING LOWS AND HIGHS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z MEX GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD AND WAS USED.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWING SHEARING VORTICITY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA AS 
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH THIS MORNING.  AREA OF AC/MID CLOUDS MOVING 
EAST/SOUTHEAST ABOUT 30 KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SHOULD MOVE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS MORNING. FORCING WEAK BUT MODELS SHOW SOME 
POSSIBILITY OF -SHSN DEVELOPING MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  TRIED 
TO TIME BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIG/VSBYS -SHSN AND SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED 
WITH FROPA MOST AREAS.  NW WINDS TO INCREASE AS CAA/PRESSURE RISES 
MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION.  STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND TO THE 
SOUTHWEST.  SYSTEM EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY EVENING...AND 
CLEARED MOST TAF SITES AROUND 06Z.  WINDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM NW TO 
SE AS WELL. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-
     FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-LE SUEUR-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-
     STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANABEC-
     KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
     MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
     STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-
     ST. CROIX.

&&

$$

RAH/DWE