000 FXUS61 KCLE 190820 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 320 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH A RIDGE NORTH INTO OHIO. IT WILL THEN MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DROP SE INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND WEAKEN TODAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL S/W WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CLOSE THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLE TO ERIE WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL S/W MOVES EAST. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EARLY FAR NE...BUT THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ESE THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FURTHER NORTH. LOW MOVES QUICKLY EAST AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THE FLURRIES OR CHANCE OF SNOW BY AFTERNOON. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FAIR THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCE WITH LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF COAST STATES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS BRINGS PRECIP QUICKLY INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH TROUGH NE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHILE NAM KEEPS PRECIP SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE ECMWF LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEFINITELY COLDER THAN GFS WHICH WOULD SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP BY MORNING. FOLLOWED ECMWF WHICH APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE. CONTINUED COLD THRU THE PERIOD...WITH LOW GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TONIGHT...AND AROUND 10 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S TODAY AND GENERALLY LOWER 20S TOMORROW. WENT CLOSE TO MAV TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM... ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER LOW SET TO MOVE UP THE OH VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEK. INVERTED TROF SHOULD SWING ACROSS AREA ON FRI. BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND PRECIP TYPE SHOULD NO LONGER BE A CONCERN. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE SE 1/2 OF FORECAST AREA. SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRACK SURFACE LOW INTO OHIO BY 12Z TUE...WITH ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER N. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE WINTER...PRECIP TYPE WILL AGAIN BE IN QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MAINLY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY NEED A MIX FOR THE NEW DAY 7. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY NEAR AN ERI TO YNG TO PKB LINE. SEEING SOME SNOW ENHANCEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS EAST OF CLE AFT 09Z. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE MOVING INTO NW OHIO BY 12Z...AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TUESDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND NOON LOCAL. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO PICK UP A GOOD INCH OR SO BY NOON TOMORROW...WHICH A GOOD 1 TO 3 ACROSS THE SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. OUTLOOK...THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK IS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF SNOW. NEXT BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW IS WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW WILL ACTUALLY TRACK...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WIDESPREAD SNOW WE GET. POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS A SECOND LOW TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT AT ALL ON THE TRACK OR TIMING OF THE LOW SO TIMING IS UP IN THE AIR ATTM. && .MARINE... WINDS AT DUNKIRK LAST HOUR STILL 37 KNOTS SO WILL EXTEND GALE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE THRU THE MORNING UPDATE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E THIS MORNING AND REMAIN W TO SW INTO TONIGHT. WEAK CLIPPER WILL PASS SOMEWHERE S OF THE LAKE WED AM. IT IS POSSIBLE WINDS COULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME EARLY WED...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME NW LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LOW PULLS OFF. A RIDGE WILL SLIDE E ACROSS THE LAKE WED NIGHT CAUSING NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME S FOR A BRIEF TIME. INVERTED TROF TO MOVE IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND FLOW WILL BECOME E TO SE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NORTHERLY AS THE TROF SLIDES OFF THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE GALE THIS MORNING...NO HEADLINES SHOULD BE NEED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ061-148-149- 168-169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RANDEL NEAR TERM...RANDEL SHORT TERM...RANDEL LONG TERM...KUBINA AVIATION...DJB MARINE...RANDEL