000 
FXUS64 KAMA 112142
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...
NLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED ALL SECTIONS TNGT AS WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY MOVES
S OF FCST AREA.  INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN TNGT.  HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM ALL BUT NWRN ZONES TNGT...WHERE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MSTR.

NLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED ON TUE...WITH SLGT COOLING FELT.  LEE TROF
DEVELOPS ON WED...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED WED NGT...WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU AND FRI.  HAVE EXPANDED THU MRNG POPS TO INCLUDE ABOUT NWRN HALF
OF FCST AREA...AS EFFECTS OF LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW BEGIN TO
IMPACT PNHDLS.  HAVE KEPT THU AFTN POPS OVER ALL BUT SERN ZONES.

THU NGT STILL LOOKS TO BE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN.  HAVE INCREASED
POPS ALL SECTIONS...DUE TO DIFFLUENT H5 FLOW DEVELOPING WHILE LOW-
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.  HAVE RETAINED POPS ON FRI...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS FRI NGT FOR SERN HALF OF FCST AREA...DUE
TO EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF CLOSED H5 LOW PASSING S OF TX PNHDL.

STAYED VERY CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS ALL PERIODS.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON WED AS DRY SWLY WINDS PREVAIL.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MINIMUM AFTN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 15 PERCENT.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LESSEN BEGINNING THU
IN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                29  54  28  68  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  22  48  21  62  29 /  10   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              24  51  25  65  28 /  20   0   0   0  10
BORGER TX                  29  54  32  69  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              28  54  26  69  33 /  10   0   0   0   5
CANYON TX                  29  53  25  67  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               32  55  30  68  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 25  54  22  65  29 /  10   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  24  53  25  67  27 /  10   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                28  53  26  67  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                27  50  22  64  32 /  10   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   30  52  32  68  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                31  54  27  68  37 /  10   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              32  55  29  68  39 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/03