000 
FXUS63 KPAH 070836
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
236 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
STRATO-CU CONTINUED TO COVER THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW
FLURRIES NOTED ACROSS THE KEVV TRI-STATE. THE RUC SHOWS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAKING IT INTO SE MISSOURI. HOWEVER THE FLOW
AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SW AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH
18Z. THEN THE MODELS PICK UP THE H9 FLOW AFT 18Z TO 10-20KTS. SO AM
NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE BACK EDGE WILL PROGRESS. MEANWHILE...A
LARGE AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SEEN ON FOG IMAGERY
AND WVAPOR IN ASSOC WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVG ESE FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE
AXIS OF THE TROF WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ESE TODAY. IT SHOULD BE OVER
LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS BY 00Z. SO WHILE WE
MAY HAVE A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE THERE IS REDUCED CLOUD COVER...THINK
MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE CLOUDS. HARD TO FIGURE OUT WHERE TRACE
PRECIP WILL END UP. BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
FA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WHERE NUMERICAL POPS ARE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. HOWEVER THE MODELS CARRY BETTER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH
ACROSS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THEREFORE...DO NOT PLAN
ON ALTERING OUR LOW PROB FOR SPRINKLES AT THIS TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAY SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS NECESSARY.

ANOTHER WAVE SEEN APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SE
AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY
LATE FRIDAY...IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO WAVE NUMBER 1 LATE TODAY.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AGAIN A QUESTION MARK. GFS SHOWS MORE ROBUST
COLUMNAR MOISTURE THAN THE NAM WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHAT WE HAVE NOW 
LOOKS FINE AND WILL NOT CHANGE. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHC POP
GOING ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(MAYBE A MIX...BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT / MINIMAL NONE THE LESS).

NO MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE POP / WX
ELEMENTS. GUIDANCE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES WERE RUNNING WARMER FOR
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY. GUIDANCE WAS NOT QUITE AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS WELL. THEREFORE WE MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ABOUT 15 KT ACROSS 
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS RATE...CLEARING LINE SHOULD 
APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 18Z. KEVV/KOWB SITES FORECAST
TO DECREASE THE LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 00Z. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS WILL
FOLLOW...WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FEET OR HIGHER. WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING...THEN TURN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY. NO VSBY ISSUES FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$