000 FXUS63 KICT 070359 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 959 PM CST WED FEB 6 2008 .UPDATE... THINKING ESSENTIALLY REMAINS THE SAME REGARDING LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT MORE OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTS BEST LIFT WILL SKIRT WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09-15Z OR SO. SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY SHORT- LIVED...BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE DECREASES LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE GENERALLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE ON THURSDAY MORNING...SO THINKING PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST. KLEINSASSER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CST WED FEB 6 2008/ UPDATE... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT...AS WELL AS TWEAK OTHER SHORT-TERM GRIDS. BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10-15Z OR SO. COULD SEE A FEW BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN UNDER ONE HALF INCH. KLEINSASSER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST WED FEB 6 2008/ AVIATION... 00Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY WENT 5 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITY WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THINKING VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO IFR (1-3 MILES) FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE SNOW BAND IS PASSING THROUGH. WILL REFINE THE TAF FORECAST AS THE TIME DRAWS NEAR. ALL IN ALL...ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ONE HALF INCH. KLEINSASSER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST WED FEB 6 2008/ DISCUSSION... TONIGHT: FORECAST DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY IN C KS. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC RIDGE COUPLED WITH EXTENSIVE 4-6 SNOW DEPTH WILL INDUCE TEMPS TO FREE FALL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DEEPENING TROF MOVING SE ACROSS WRN PLAINS IS SPREADING EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THATLL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. AS SUCH AM DEVIATING FROM THE TRADITIONAL DIURNAL APPROACH BY ASSIGNING LOW TEMPS TO MOST AREAS THIS EVENING WITH STEADYING...AND PERHAPS SLOWLY RISING...TEMPS THEREAFTER. SOME -SN IS POSSIBLE AS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LWR-DECK MOISTURE AXIS VENTURES E/SE ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE MAGNITUDE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING TROF IS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AN 20% POP ASSIGNMENT TO C KS FROM 12MID- 6AM. THU & THU NIGHT: AS AFORE-MENTIONED TROF CONTINUES ITS SE SURGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR -SN WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT SE ACROSS SC & SE KS DURING THE MORNING. UNDERCUT ALL GUIDANCE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS C & SC KS (10F IN MOST CASES) WITH MAXES RANGING FROM 35F IN C KS TO 45F IN SE WHERE SNOW COVER VERY LIMITED. THU NIGHTS MINS WILL MODERATE AS ZONAL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE GREAT PLAINS. FRI-SUN: GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS WEEKEND IS FOCUSED ON SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY PERIOD AS POLAR VORTEX...SURGING SE OVER UPR MS VALLEY WILL PUSH A BACKDOORING ARCTIC FRONT THATLL KNOCK ON DOORS ALONG NE CORRIDOR SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE ASSIGNED 20F TO NE 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER IF COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SW...CONSIDERABLE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WOULD NO DOUBT BE REQUIRED. MON-WED: SOME -RA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF SC KS & ALL OF SE KS ON MON AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-UPR TROF MOVES SE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... PUSHING A COLD FRONT IN LIKE MANNER ACROSS KS. A -RA/-SN MIXTURE WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE KS LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THESE AREAS. COLD SPELL TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS A 2ND MID-UPR TROF DEVELOPS OVER NRN & CENTRAL ROCKIES & STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY WED. THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT WILL INDUCE EQUALLY RAPID & INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER WRN KS & TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION WED & WED NIGHT. ONSET OF BRISK SLY FLOW OVER CWFA DICTATES PRESSING HARD ON THERMAL THROTTLE ALL AREAS WITH HIGHS OF 50-55F & LOWS OF 35-40F ASSIGNED TO ALL AREAS WED & WED NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 21 40 26 46 / 30 30 0 0 HUTCHINSON 19 38 24 44 / 40 20 0 0 NEWTON 18 38 25 45 / 30 30 0 0 ELDORADO 19 40 24 46 / 20 30 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 24 45 26 49 / 20 30 0 0 RUSSELL 21 35 22 41 / 40 10 0 0 GREAT BEND 24 37 24 42 / 40 10 0 0 SALINA 13 35 23 41 / 40 20 0 0 MCPHERSON 17 36 23 43 / 30 20 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 22 47 26 51 / 0 30 0 0 CHANUTE 21 43 25 49 / 10 30 0 0 IOLA 21 41 25 47 / 10 30 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 21 45 25 50 / 10 30 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$