000 FXUS65 KBYZ 160400 AFDBYZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 900 PM MST TUE JAN 15 2008 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU... MUCH COLDER BUT STILL MAINLY DRY AIRMASS SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER WINDY DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL SNOW OCCURRING ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDER AND IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA BUT ELSEWHERE RADARS ARE LOOKING CLEAR. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LOOK PRETTY GOOD GIVEN DEWPOINTS AROUND THE AREA ARE IN SINGLE DIGITS BUT SOME MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NEWEST WRF MODEL RUN WAS LOW ON CANADIAN RAOB INGEST SO HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE NEW GUIDANCE THAT WOULD SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. BORSUM .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE... UNSETTLED EXTENDED STILL LOOK ON TRACK. FAIR AGREEMENT IN MODELS UP TO THIS WEEKEND...BUT MODELS AND CONFIDENCE VERY LOW BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM STILL VERY TRICKY WITH REMNANTS OF IT LOOK TO BE STICKING AROUND FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ALONG THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TOUGH CALL AS WELL WITH UNCERTAINTY OF SNOWFALL THAT COULD OCCUR. SHOULD BE A PRETTY STRONG WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES AS WELL. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THIS DAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER THE AREA. BUT OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE FORECAST VERY MUCH FRIDAY. SATURDAY...YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES WITH TIMING OF NEXT STRONG COLD SHOT OF AIR. LATEST ECMWF ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF FRONT SLIDING INTO AREA IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH GFS A BIT SLOWER. DEPENDING OF TIMING OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST ON SATURDAY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...BUT DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE WHICH IS THE WARMER OF THE MODELS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STILL MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG COLD WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. LOOKS TO BE A CLASSIC ARCTIC FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOW ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS FROM RED LODGE SOUTH AND EAST TO SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY WYOMING. DEPENDING ON OVERRUNNING SHIELD LIGHT SNOW COULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS BILLINGS. ONE THING FOR SURE IT WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS/ECMWF NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS STORM IN HWO PRODUCT FOR NOW. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE VERY LOW IN THIS TIME FRAME WITH ENSEMBLES ALL OVER THE PLACE. ENSEMBLE RANGE IN BILLINGS FOR TUESDAY HIGH RANGES FROM 5 TO 38 DEGREES. LIKE CURRENT FORECAST AND HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES. RASCH && .AVIATION... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS IN EASTERN ZONES. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FROM BILLINGS AND WEST... HOWEVER REMAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BILLINGS COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHTS FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH REMAINING IN CENTRAL ZONES AND AROUND 40 MPH IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SKY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST... BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY AROUND 06Z ...CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GILSTAD && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 009/024 016/030 017/026 012/028 011/015 001/015 006/029 12/S 23/S 32/S 23/S 44/S 22/S 22/S LVM 006/019 014/028 017/028 015/029 014/015 003/017 012/025 42/S 33/S 22/S 22/S 44/S 22/S 22/S HDN 009/025 012/030 017/028 012/028 012/016 902/018 001/028 23/S 37/S 73/S 23/S 43/S 22/S 22/S MLS 009/022 011/028 012/017 000/017 004/012 903/012 002/026 12/S 36/S 43/S 32/S 32/S 22/S 22/S 4BQ 008/020 007/026 011/023 004/028 006/015 904/013 001/028 42/S 37/S 64/S 32/S 33/S 22/S 22/S BHK 005/018 003/023 004/011 902/015 000/008 908/007 002/023 62/S 36/S 53/S 32/S 32/S 22/S 21/B SHR 007/019 005/027 013/023 004/028 009/016 905/016 903/027 32/S 36/S 64/S 22/S 44/S 22/S 22/S && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS