000 FXUS64 KFWD 292302 AAA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 502 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2007 .AVIATION... MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS REACHED KSPS-KABI-KSJT. CLOUDS SHOULD REACH METROPLEX TAF SITES AND BRING VFR CIGS /100-120/ AROUND 02-03Z. CIGS SHOULD REACH KACT ABOUT AN HOUR LATER. EXPECT CLOUDS TO MOVE EAST OF SITES BY OR BEFORE DAYBREAK. SOUTHEAST-SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER SYSTEM...REACHING TAF SITES AROUND 12-13Z. WEST WINDS 8-12 KTS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. ..06.. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 327 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2007 A SHORT WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW CLOUDS. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OFF THE WEST COAST. DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THEREFORE...THE END OF 2007 AND THE START OF THE NEW YEAR SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH HINTING AT ANOTHER WEST COAST SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME LOW QPF OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF THERE IS SOME MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY. PROBABLY THE MOST NOTEWORTHY WEATHER OCCURRENCE DURING THE WEEK WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 1056 SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. HOWEVER...INCREASING WINDS AND DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE THE GRASS FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEX NUMBERS APPEAR TOO WARM AFTER FROPA SO WILL UNDERCUT A FEW CATEGORIES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 35 62 39 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 36 66 42 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 31 57 36 56 31 / 0 5 0 5 0 DENTON, TX 33 62 36 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 32 60 36 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 38 62 41 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 36 61 40 58 30 / 0 0 0 5 0 CORSICANA, TX 34 64 41 62 32 / 0 0 0 5 0 TEMPLE, TX 35 69 42 66 32 / 0 0 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 79