000 
FXUS64 KSJT 290955
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
355 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY. 
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP ACROSS THE REGION...SO HAVE 
GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY 
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY 
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT EXPECT THE ONLY EFFECT WILL BE SOME 
FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...
A SURFACE TOUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE  AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY. WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE 
REGION MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE 
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO EXPECT FROPA TO BE A DRY ONE. T

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST 
ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALSO HAVE A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES 
STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...BOTH THE GFS 
AND ECMWF HAVE A 1050 HIGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS 
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COLD AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE REGION..SO HAVE 
GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY MORNING LOWS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 
TO MID 20S BUT THAT STILL MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH...WITH THE 
NORTHERLY WINDS IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE 
REGION...THINK WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM 
DROPPING IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. 

WITH RETURN FLOW  AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE 
REGION....A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED ...SO FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK  WEDNESDAY HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN 
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. 


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN A ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SUNDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE TEEN BUT LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE JUST
BELOW CRITERIA AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE ARE PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
FUELS...SO EVEN WHEN RED FLAG CRITERIA IS NOT MET...THE FIRE
DANGER STILLS EXIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 59  29  68  35 /  10  10  10   0 
SAN ANGELO 	 62  28  71  35 /  10  10  10   0 
JUNCTION 	 63  27  72  33 /  10  10  10   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/28