000 
FXUS65 KTFX 262146
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
246 PM MST WED DEC 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A RATHER DISORGANIZED UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE DIVES WELL SOUTH OF MONTANA LEAVING THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA UNDER GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. A WEAK BROAD UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN ON
THURSDAY WITH ONLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SNOW
TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. EMANUEL

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE 
TO BE DOMINATED BY A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. PERIOD 
STARTS OUT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKY 
MOUNTAINS FOR SNOW OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA MOUNTAINS. 
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN DOWNSLOPE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO 
ISOLATED OR LOW CHANCE AT BEST. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH... A 
CYCLONICALLY CURVED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE STATE 
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW BUT ONLY 
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEST TO 
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MY CWA. THE PROGRESSIVE 
PATTERN SWITCHES OVER BY MID-WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO 
BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN 
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISHING ACROSS 
THE REGION AS MOISTURE IS SHUNTED NORTH INTO CANADA. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1733Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING SNOW 
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY DOWNSLOPE 
WINDS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS GENERALLY DRY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL 
PREVAIL OVER THE PLAINS WITH MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW AND LOW 
CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CAUSE SOME OBSCURATION OF TERRAIN AND 
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN FROM 
CANADA AFTER 00Z WILL BRING LOWER CLOUDS AND MVFR CEILINGS ALONG 
WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHLINE. 
THOMSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  16  30  13  32 /  20  10   0  10 
CTB  14  26   8  27 /  20  20   0  10 
HLN  15  25  11  32 /  20  20  10  40 
BZN   8  22   4  30 /  40  20  10  30 
WEY  -5  12  -9  20 /  70  30  40  60 
DLN   8  22   6  28 /  30  20  20  40 
HVR  12  27   6  28 /  10  20   0   0 
LWT  16  28   8  32 /  20  10  10   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMANUEL
LONG TERM...MPJ
AVIATION...THOMSON

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS