000 
FXUS63 KPAH 260853
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 AM CST WED DEC 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH OUR CHANCE OF RAIN WEST 1/2 THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH POPS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN RAISED TO HIGH 
CHANCE OR LIKELY...FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW.
SYSTEM WILL DEPART QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST. A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF. THE ENERGY FROM THIS TROF WILL
SWING ENE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVING SAID THIS...THERE
IS A CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLOW
TO MOISTEN UP THURSDAY NIGHT. SO BACKED OFF POPS FOR RAIN BASED
LARGELY ON MOISTURE FIELDS AND RESULTANT QPF SEEN IN A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/GFS AND SREF. THEN...RAISED POPS A BIT FRIDAY AND
PROGRESS THEM FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PARENT
UPPER DYNAMICS RACE NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER
FRIDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE LOW AMPLITUDE WITH BROAD
TROFINESS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
WITH A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE EAST U.S. AND BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE WEST. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE. THE 25/00Z
ECMWF WAS A GLARING OUTLIER SHOWING ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK
(TUE OR SO). THE 25/12Z AND 26/00Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE COME MUCH MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLES AND GFS OPS MODELS AND MUTE THIS
NOTION. TEMPS MAY SWING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES WITH A LARGE HIGH
FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...
AFTER 00Z...WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH CIGS FALLING INTO THE 1500 FT
RANGE WITH VSBYS AROUND 4 MILES IN -SHRA BR. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
-SHRA WILL BE EAST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY WILL KEEP SOME AREAS IN
MVFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$