000 FXUS61 KBGM 260208 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 908 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR AND CHILLY WEATHER TO MOST OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH ON FRIDAY...WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 905 PM...RAPID LL SUBSDC AND DRYING EVIDENT ON THE 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY AS CLDS RAPIDLY CLR ACRS WRN NY AND NE PA. THIS CLRG LINE WILL CONT TO WORK EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO NC NY BY 4-6Z THEN STALL OUT. SKIES SHUD REMAIN MO CLDY MUCH OF NIGHT N OF THRUWAY. WITH CLRG SKIES TEMPS RAPIDLY FALL AS BNDRY WINDS ARE LIGHT UNDERNEATH LL RDG. LOWERED MIN/S A BIT AS A RESULT. OTHRW NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON...EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST OR ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN HOW AMPLIFIED THIS SYSTEM LOOKS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT WOULDNT BE SURPRISING TO SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. THUS...WELL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS ON WEDNESDAY...FOR PARTS OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFF SHORE...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS WEAK RIDGING RE-ASSERTS ITSELF. THURSDAY...ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE TREND IN THE EUROPEAN AND GFS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE QPF OUTPUT...AND THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE CONFLUENT FLOW PATTERN. WELL JUST GO WITH 30% PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER A LULL THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...THE PRIMARY LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST...WITH RAIN ULTIMATELY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...WELL STICK WITH OUR CHANCE OF RAIN...EMPHASIZING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANOTHER WRM SYSTEM TO START OFF THE PD AS A CLSD LOW TRACKS THRU THE WRN LAKES. STRONG COLD FNT PUSHES THRU BHD THE LOW ON SAT AND BRINGS MORE SEASONABLE AIR INTO THE REGION...AND SCT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHWRS THRU THE WEEKEND. WITH THE SE UPR RDG FLATTENED...SYSTEM APRCHG FOR MON AND TUE IS A BIT COLDER AND MAY BE A MAINLY OR ALL SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH AMTS LOOK TO BE LGT. BEYOND THE PD...MODELS SEEM TO BE LEANING BACK TWRD A COLDER PTRN FOR THE AREA AS A RDG BUILDS IN THE WEST...AND A DEEP TROF FORMS FURTHER EAST. FOR THE GRIDS...GNRLY USED THE GMOS GUID WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. OF NOTE...THE FRI NGT AND SAT MIN AND MAX DID NOT SEEM TO MATCH THE HRLY TMPS WELL SO THE MIN WAS ADJUSTED UP AND AND THE MAX DOWN. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST OF THE OVRNGT HRS AS LL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CLRNG LINE SHUD REACH KAVP ARND 02Z...KBGM/KELM/KITH BTWN 04Z-06Z AND NRN TERMINALS ARND 12Z. AT TERMINALS THAT CAN CLEAR OUT...MAINLY 4 SRNMOST SITES...MVFR VSBYS RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEVERAL HRS AFTER CLEARING. ANY LOW CLDS OR FOG WILL DIMINISH AFTER DAYBREAK WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER APPROX 12Z OR 13Z. WINDS WILL GNRLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH ARND 03KTS OVRNGT BEFORE BCMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SITS OVERHEAD. BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHIFT TO A E-NE DIRECTION AS SFC LOW RIDES UP THE EAST COAST. NO PCPN EXPECTED THRU 00Z THURSDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD... QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WINTRY MIX OF PCPN FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. STRONGER SYSTEM APPCHS ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED THRU SAT MORNING...THEN MIXING WITH RAIN OR SNOW THRU SATURDAY. SOME LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE SAT THRU SUN MRNG OVER KSYR/KRME. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...PVB