000 
FXUS64 KFWD 231458
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
850 AM CST FRI NOV 23 2007

.UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE AT 9 AM TO REMOVE THE FREEZE WARNING IN 
NORTHEAST ZONES.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 
NEXT HOUR. 

WILL ALSO ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

.79...
&&  


.AVIATION...
545 AM
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  VFR CIG NEAR 
FL100 WILL LINGER BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING UP LATER THIS MORNING. 
OTHERWISE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BUT SPEEDS WILL 
REMAIN LESS THAN 12 KT.  

TAF FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS 
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG WARM/MOISTURE 
ADVECTION REGIME ENSUES AHEAD OF UPPER LOW.  COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD 
OF SLEET/SNOW RIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS...BUT WARMING COLUMN 
MEANS COLD RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT TYPE. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...SURFACE 
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AT TAF SITES REGARDLESS OF HYDROMETEOR 
STATE.  ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AND LOW LEVELS SATURATE IT LOOKS 
LIKE IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN ACROSS TRACON SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN DELAYS ON BUSY WEEKEND.

TR.92

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS AGREE ON WET WEEKEND...WTIH PRECIP STARTING FRIDAY EVENING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. I INDICATED A BIT OF A
WINTRY MIX IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING...BUT REST OF
WEEKEND MODEL THICKNESSES FORECAST COLD RAIN RATHER THAN WINTER
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS...IT MAY GET
COOL ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIP AGAIN...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY
AT THE SAME TIME AND PRECIP MAY BE OVER BEFORE IT COOLS ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT WINTER WEATHER. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED...BECAUSE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW A COOLER
TREND...WINTER WEATHER WILL BE BACK IN THE PICTURE. MUCAPE SEEMS
TO BE ABSENT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY GENERALLY
ABOVE 600 MB...SO I REMOVED THE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST.

NEXT SYSTEM OR SYSTEMS SET FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
DIFFERENT TIMING FROM THE GFS AND EURO. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW AND LATER PACKAGES CAN REFINE THE TIMING AS THE MODELS
CONVERGE.      84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  52  40  42  40  44 /  10  30  80  60  60 
WACO, TX              54  40  43  39  44 /  10  40  90  70  70 
PARIS, TX             51  35  41  37  44 /  10  20  70  60  70 
DENTON, TX            49  39  43  38  45 /  10  20  80  60  60 
MCKINNEY, TX          52  38  43  38  44 /  10  20  80  60  70 
DALLAS, TX            52  40  42  41  44 /  10  30  90  70  70 
TERRELL, TX           52  40  45  40  44 /  10  30  90  70  70 
CORSICANA, TX         53  40  42  40  43 /  10  40  90  70  70 
TEMPLE, TX            55  43  43  40  42 /  10  40  90  70  70 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ZONES: TXZ093>095-103-104-118-130>132-141.

&&

$$

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