000 FXUS63 KMPX 181139 AAA AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 540 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007 .UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. .DISCUSSION... FAIRLY DRY DEW POINTS HAVE ADVECTED INTO AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST. THIS WILL DELAY PRECIP CHANCES OVER MOST OF AREA UNTIL AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT IN WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING INTO AREA TODAY WITH BETTER LIFT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST INITIALLY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN BETTER LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT WATER VAPOR TRENDS SHOWING DIFLUENT FLOW AND WAVE MOVING ENE FROM MT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND AND ND...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE BETTER LIFT ACROSS N MN LATER TODAY. SREF POPS TARGETING NORTHERN MN AS WELL. MORE OF CONFLUENT NW FLOW OVER NEB AND IA AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP THE GENERAL INCREASING POP TRENDS LATER TODAY BUT DELAY THIS MORNING. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY...THE FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW SCENARIO THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS OK. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL LOOK LIKE A MILD DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE WARM FROPA...ESPECIALLY SW. LOWEST ENSEMBLE MEMBER FOR RWF EVEN IN LOWER 50S WITH THE HIGHEST AT 59. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE IN FAR NORTHERN PART OF CWA WHERE A FRONTOGENETIC PATTERN SETS UP. WILL GO MORE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE TRENDS. STILL SOME CHANCE THAT SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN MAY OCCUR TO OUR SOUTH BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BRING PRECIP MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. && .AVIATION.../FROM 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER MOST OF MN AREA WITH SOME LOCAL IFR CIGS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF MN TAF SITE THIS MORNING...WORKING INTO KRNH/KEAU THIS AFTERNOON. COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS DAKOTAS THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING/EASTERN MN AND WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MENTION SOME TEMPO RASN AXN/RWF DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING PROB30S EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY SEE CIG IMPROVEMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST/RWF AND AXN AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT/TROF LIFTS FARTHER EAST. OTHERWISE...WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUTS SOME OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ JPR/DWE