000 FXUS64 KFWD 181134 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 528 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007 .AVIATION... 528 AM CST MAIN AVIATION CONCERN NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVES TIMING THE DISSIPATING OF STRATUS THIS MORNING AND REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS MONDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...BUT VSBYS WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY DROP TO BLO 2SM AT TAF SITES. COULD BE A SHOWER VCNTY KACT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE NO PCPN EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE 15-16Z...PERHAPS LATER IN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE THICKEST. EXPECT A REPEAT OF CONDITIONS AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL BRING IFR CIGS BACK TO ALL SITES BY 07Z MONDAY. /09 && .DISCUSSION... 405 AM CST A SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AS OF 09Z WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WE WILL RE- EVALUATE THIS AROUND SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER THAN THERE WERE A FEW DAYS AGO SO THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE NOT BE TOO HIGH. WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY...AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY AND DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE JUST SHORT OF THE FIRE DANGER/RED FLAG LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT STILL LOOKS BREEZY/WINDY ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWER. THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND AREAWIDE ON NEXT SUNDAY. #58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 60 78 64 82 / 10 10 0 10 10 WACO, TX 81 60 79 65 83 / 20 10 10 10 20 PARIS, TX 75 56 77 60 78 / 20 10 10 10 30 DENTON, TX 80 58 80 62 81 / 10 10 0 0 10 MCKINNEY, TX 78 55 77 62 80 / 20 10 0 10 10 DALLAS, TX 80 61 79 64 82 / 10 10 0 10 10 TERRELL, TX 78 59 79 64 80 / 20 10 10 10 20 CORSICANA, TX 79 60 79 64 81 / 30 10 10 10 20 TEMPLE, TX 81 59 81 64 81 / 20 10 10 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 58/58