000 
FXUS63 KLBF 180948
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 AM CST SUN NOV 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES. AT 08Z THE RADAR
MOSAIC AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN NARROW REGION OF
RETURNS THAT IS MOVING EAST NEAR 40 MPH. THE MOVEMENT WILL BRING
AN END OF SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL BETWEEN 11 AM AND
NOON CST. CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST WILL CLEAR THE WEST EARLY THEN ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS POSSIBLE AS JET LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN TO THE WEST WHERE ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP GENERATE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS FROM OROGRAPHIC IMPACTS WEST THIS MORNING.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAIN DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA TODAY WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH FOR DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS AS THE SEMI STATIONARY FRONT RETURNS NORTHEAST CREATING
A 15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS
BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR BEST WARMING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. OVERNIGHT
THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS FOR GOOD MIXING AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
MOVES EAST FOR LOWS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT.

MONDAY THE STRONG COLD WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND BE
HITTING THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE BY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME
DOMINATE WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO POSSIBLY SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED EARLY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK
WHERE A 25 TO 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM MONDAY WILL BE
SEEN. GOOD FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OCCURS AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY STILL IN QUESTION. LOW POPS CARRIED
FORWARD FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH. THE STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH CRITERIA POSSIBLY MET
THROUGH THE MORNING FOR A WIND ADVISORY...THEN AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM DROPS FURTHER SOUTH WINDS DECREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGES WELL SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE WEST COAST CREATING A
PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLDEST READINGS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE FOR FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO HIT THE FREEZING MARK. OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND
SOUTH TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET FOR MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS EACH
MORNING THEREAFTER INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS POSSIBLY DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY WITH THE LACK OF ANY SNOW
COVER TO THE NORTH WITH READINGS TO TREND BACK INTO THE 40S BY THE
WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY 
THIS MORNING EAST OF TAF SITES KVTN AND KLBF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEHIND 
THIS DISTURBANCE...EXPECT FEW-SCT AT FL150-200 AFTER 12Z TODAY 
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY...THEN SKC OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS TO BECOME WEST 5 
TO 10 KTS BY 18Z TODAY TIL 00Z...THEN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 
KTS TONIGHT. NO LLWS CONCERNS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

KECK/ROBERG