000 FXUS63 KICT 051737 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1237 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007 .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS...ICT/HUT/CNU/RSL/SLN...WINDY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...MAY SEE SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY 10-15Z...DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST SFC-850MB LAYER. THINKING SOME BKN CIGS BELOW 1000FT AGL MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE LEVEL AT THIS TIME DICTATES FEW009 SCT015 FOR NOW. KLEINSASSER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007/ UPDATE... MADE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING GRIDS. WINDY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A POWERFUL MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED LOCATIONS WEST OF THE TURNPIKE MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH AREALLY OR TEMPORALLY FOR A WIND ADVISORY. KLEINSASSER FIRE WEATHER... VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...MAINLY WEST OF I-135. FIRE DANGER MAY FLIRT WITH THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON WELL WEST OF I-135...WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60F. DESPITE CRITICAL FUELS FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS...MINIMUM AFTER HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. KLEINSASSER CLIMATE... EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID 90S SHOULD REMAIN SAFE. RUSSELL...SALINA...WICHITA...AND CHANUTE ALL BROKE RECORD WARM MINS THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEND OUT PRELIMINARY RECORD EVENT REPORTS FOR THESE SITES. KLEINSASSER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007/ AVIATION... FOR 12Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL KS. WINDS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE ALREADY SUSTAINED OVER 20 MPH AND WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH FOR KRSL AND KSLN. AFTER SUNSET THEY WILL BACK OFF BUT WILL STILL REMAIN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007/ DISCUSSION... TODAY-TONIGHT: DO NOT ANTICIPATE CIRRUS MAKING SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MAXES...AND GOOD INSOLATION WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WINDY DAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVE AT 0000 UTC IS SIMILAR TO YDA...SO WITH EXPECTING SIMILAR RANGE OF WIND SPEEDS...JUST STARTING A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH RATHER JUICY DEWPOINTS...SHOULD SEE UNSEASONABLY WARM LOWS. SAT-SAT NIGHT: BELIEVE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE QUITE SLIM ON SAT AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE IF ANY THETA ADVECTION. IN ABSENCE OF EITHER SURFACE BOUNDARY OR ANY REAL WARM AIR ADVECTION...HARD PRESSED TO KEEP PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GOING. DID KEEP PRECIPITATION TO EAST OF I-35 GOING FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES. ALSO SUSPECT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. TWO SEPARATE AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED...ONE WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE CLIMATOLOGY FAVORED FLINT HILLS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET AREA...AND THE SECOND CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST. NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ICT...OR IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. ONCE AGAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM LOWS ARE EXPECTED. SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODELS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION...WITH TIMING/ LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL DRY SLOT KEY TO MUCH OF THE SUN NIGHT-MON FORECAST. APPEARS THAT PERSISTENT MOIST FETCH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ON SUN...LIMITING WARM UP AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER 05/00 UTC EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECAST MODEL IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE SURFACE DRYLINE... SUGGESTING A SURFACE LOW AND TRIPLE POINT NORTHWEST OF GAG. STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH INSTABILITY AND HODOGRAPH FOR A SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL WOULD PAINT A CONSIDERABLY MORE OMINOUS SCENARIO THAN THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION...THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL IS THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME WITH VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT LIMITING HELICITY. MON: ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO MON...HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT REVISIONS. LATEST RUNS WITH SLOWER EVOLUTION WOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST KS LONGER...MORE CLOUDS IN WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL KS LIMITING WARMUP AND DRY SLOT IN SOUTH CENTRAL WITH DECENT AFTERNOON WARMUP PRIOR TO COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL KS. DID NOT MENTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL OUTPUT AND THAT IT COULD END UP BEING A TRACE EVENT. MON NIGHT-THU: NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. -HOWERTON AVIATION... GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED. MODELS DO HINT AT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY EAST OF I-35 TONIGHT..SO WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER STRATUS IN KCNU FORECAST. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 89 71 86 69 / 10 10 10 20 HUTCHINSON 89 70 86 69 / 10 10 10 20 NEWTON 89 68 84 67 / 10 10 10 20 ELDORADO 90 68 85 68 / 10 10 20 30 WINFIELD-KWLD 90 70 86 70 / 10 10 20 20 RUSSELL 92 71 89 66 / 10 10 10 40 GREAT BEND 90 70 89 68 / 10 10 10 30 SALINA 91 71 88 70 / 10 10 10 30 MCPHERSON 90 69 86 69 / 10 10 10 30 COFFEYVILLE 92 69 89 69 / 10 10 20 20 CHANUTE 90 68 88 68 / 10 10 20 20 IOLA 91 67 88 67 / 10 10 20 20 PARSONS-KPPF 89 70 88 72 / 10 10 20 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$