000 FXUS63 KILX 051541 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1041 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1041 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007 PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE KILX CWA THIS MORNING...WHILE SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. MAY EVEN SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE E/SE...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS...15Z TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...WELL ON THE WAY TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL...SO HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS. BARNES && .AVIATION... ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007 DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER THIS MORNING AS ALTOCU/ACCAS BUBBLES AROUND 8K-10K FT. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE WESTERN PERIFERY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH KENTUCKY. AS THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT...IT WILL TAKE THE MOISTURE WITH IT AND RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 00Z SAT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY IS NOT STRONGLY UNSTABLE...BUT NEITHER IS THERE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO SUPPRESS ISOLATED AFTERNOON /18Z-22Z/ SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE EAST OF A LINE MVN-CMI. CHANCES APPEAR TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE CMI TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON VFR CU TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING AND THEN DIMINISH TOWARD 00Z SAT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ORIGINATING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOISTURE POOL WILL AID FOG FORMATION/MAINTENANCE THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAN 3-5SM MVFR...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SPOTS AROUND CMI MAY GO TO 2SM FOR AN HOUR OR SO AROUND 12-13Z. A REPEAT PERFORMANCE VISIBIILTY-WISE IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT 06Z-12Z SAT. 04 && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL US IS QUICKLY AMPLIFYING AS A DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG IN ACROSS THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE NATION IS STILL FAIRLY FLAT... BUT IT TOO WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY IN TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW ALOFT... WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY A GOOD 15-20 DEGREES. AS THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO DIG IN AND VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS OFF TO THE EAST... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY KICK THROUGH THE AREA. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING... AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS RESULTED ACROSS WESTERN IA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING... AIDED BY A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL CANNOT OUTRULE ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND... ESPECIALLY IF ANY WEAK/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES DO MANAGE TO KICK OUT FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS CO/NM THIS MORNING... BUT APPEARS TO BE TAKING A MUCH FARTHER NORTH TRACK THAN THE PREVIOUS DISTURBANCE AS THE MAIN TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON... ONCE AGAIN A SKINNY-CAPE PROFILE THAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON SFC DEWPOINTS. CU FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED SOME MINOR BUILDUPS... AND WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY... I HAVE DECIDED TO BITE THE BULLET AND KEEP MENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE FIRST PERIOD ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE MAIN TROUGH EJECTING OUT INTO THE PLAINS... ADMITTEDLY CLOSER NOW TO WHAT THE GFS HAD BEEN INDICATING EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THIS MEANS SUNDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY DRY... WITH PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... AND WITH THE LACK OF RAIN... ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW ISOLATED 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD... AS SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BALANCE THINGS OUT SOMEWHAT. EVEN SO... WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW RECORDS FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DRYING OUT SUNDAY... MAINLY KEPT POPS UNCHANGED FOR THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ECMWF SUGGESTS A QUICK HITTER... WHICH CONSIDERING TRENDS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE... MIGHT BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC. GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER... CUTTING OFF THE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND LINGERING IT IN THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT... WOULD NOT BE SO QUICK TO WRITE THIS SOLUTION OFF. HARDIMAN && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$